ST. PAUL, Minn .— Given the amount of enthusiasm on the convention floor where John McCain will accept the Republican nomination tonight, you’d never know this election is likely to be the toughest for the party in years. 

Souring economic trends combined with dissatisfaction with President Bush will make it exceptionally difficult for Republicans to keep the White House and gain seats in Congress, political analysts say.

“It’s obviously not a good year for Republicans, not in this climate,” said Andy Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University.  “You’ve got a Republican president with an approval rating of less than 30 percent and the country wants change.”

Still, the hard core Republicans gathered in St. Paul this week are anything but pessimistic – at least publicly. Delegates say there are three reasons for their optimism. 

First, of all the candidates who sought the GOP nomination, no one positioned himself as a party outsider more than McCain.  That will help attract independents, they say, in a year when a more traditional candidate would almost certainly lose. 

Second, the party’s conservative base, which was crucial to both of Bush’s victories, has been slow to warm to the Arizona senator. But his selection of conservative, pro-life Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate seems to have changed that, and delegates hope energy from that key voting block will put McCain over the top. 

And third, they say, Palin’s appeal to women voters — including some former supporters of Democrat Hillary Clinton — could be extremely important.

“This is an exciting moment for women, certainly, that we have a lady at the top of the ticket and that will help,” said Valerie White, a delegate from Asheboro, N.C.  

Amongst delegates, there is near universal agreement with an assessment of the race that McCain campaign manager Rick Davis offered South Carolina Republicans at a breakfast meeting earlier this week.

“With the excitement and the message and the commitment that we will show the American public when John and Cindy (McCain) and Gov. Palin leave the convention Thursday night, we’re going to be ahead, we’re not looking back and we’re going to win in November,” Davis said, to thunderous applause.

Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in South Carolina, says that though the tide is running against Republicans this year, they could yet pull out a win.

The potential impact of racism on the election — a new, largely unpredictable factor brought on by Barack Obama’s historic candidacy as the first black man to be nominated for president by a major party – could end up tipping the election to the GOP, he said. 

But a win is anything but guaranteed.

“I’m not sure the Republicans should be quite as optimistic as they seem to be at the convention,” he said.