BY RAMUSSEN
Richard Burr’s U.S. Senate seat has a recent history of high turnover, but the incumbent Republican holds double-digit leads over three Democratic challengers in an early look at North Carolina’s 2010 Senate contest.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey in the Tar Heel State finds Burr ahead of longtime Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 48% to 38%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are not sure who to vote for.

Burr leads Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis, who like Marshall has officially declared for the race, by even more – 48% to 32%. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided.

Congressman Bob Etheridge, viewed as another strong but as yet undeclared contender, trails Burr by 14 points – 48% to 34% – with three percent (3%) favoring some other candidate. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.

Despite Burr’s early lead, however, incumbents who poll under 50% are generally considered vulnerable. Burr, first elected in 2004, is expected to seek a second term, but no incumbent has been reelected to the seat he holds since 1968.

Burr captures 85% or more of the state GOP vote in all three of the match-ups. Marshall performs best among Democrats, capturing 74% of the vote. Among unaffiliated voters, Burr leads Marshall by 28 points and tops the other two candidates by even more.

Although Barack Obama was the first Democrat to carry North Carolina in a presidential election since 1976, opposition to his health care reform plan runs high in the state. Forty-four percent (44%) favor the plan, but 53% oppose it. These numbers are virtually identical to the national average. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly favor it by 16 points, a fact likely to work in the conservative incumbent’s favor.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of North Carolina voters approve of the job President Obama is doing, but 52% disapprove. Thirty-six percent (36%) strongly approve of his job performance, while 43% strongly disapprove. This is roughly comparable to Obama’s ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) have a very favorable view of Burr, while 11% regard him very unfavorably.

Marshall is seen very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 12%. Lewis is viewed very favorably by 12% and very unfavorably by the same number (12%). Sixteen percent (16%) have a very favorable opinion of Etheridge, while 16% view him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just seven percent (7%) of North Carolina voters consider the economy good or excellent. Fifty percent (50%) say it is poor. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say the economy is getting better, but 43% say it’s getting worse.

But 54% worry that the federal government will try to do too much in reacting to the country’s economic problems, while 34% fear it won’t do enough.

Seventy-five percent (75%) say it is likely that taxes for the middle class will increase to cover the cost of health care reform. Sixty-four percent (64%) believe the health care legislation proposed by the president and congressional Democrats will increase the deficit.

Most North Carolina voters (51%) believe the quality of health care will worsen if the health care plan is passed, while just 27% think quality will get better.

As for the cost of health care if the plan becomes law, 47% say it will go up while just 19% say it will go down.

Forty percent (40%) of voters in the state approve of the job Democratic Governor Bev Perdue is doing, while 58% disapprove. Those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approved by nearly two-to-one.