RALEIGH, N.C. – If early numbers are any indication it looks like North Carolina is due
for some very close political races in 2010.
On the generic ballot for the state legislature Republicans lead 45-44 and when it comes
to Congress it’s an almost equally close 45-43 Republican advantage.
Republicans are faring well for two key reasons. First, they have a significant edge with
independents. On the legislative ballot they have a 48-27 lead with them and on the
Congressional one it’s 48-29. Second, GOP voters are more unified heading into 2010
than Democrats are. On the legislative ballot 88% of Republicans commit to voting for
their party while only 79% of Democrats do. When it comes to Congressional voting the
figures are 90% and 77% for the two parties.
One reason the state looks so competitive for next year is that suburban swing voters,
who tended to go Democratic last year, have now shown a shift back toward Republicans.
They say they’ll vote for GOP legislative candidates by a 50-40 margin.
“The way things are shaping up there is a real chance Republicans could take control of
the legislature in North Carolina next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “It’s important for Democratic voters not to be complacent because if
they don’t show up at the polls there could be real consequences for the party for the next
decade if the GOP gets a hold of the redistricting process.”
PPP will release numbers tomorrow looking at voter perceptions about corruption in
North Carolina and how that issue has shifted over the last few decades.
PPP surveyed 711 North Carolina voters from November 9th to 11th. The survey’s
margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
