RALEIGH, NC – A new study by the consulting firm Arduin, Laffer & Moore (ALM) Econometrics and released by Raleigh’s Civitas Institute concludes that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) will actually cause North Carolina to lose up to 67,000 jobs over the next two years.

NBC17 is checking with Gov. Bev Perdue for the other side. Check back here for updates on this story.

The study, entitled “The Economic Impact of Federal Spending on State Economic Performance: A North Carolina Perspective” concludes, “In North Carolina, between 51.1 thousand and 66.9 thousand job losses can be expected to occur during the time that ARRA funds are being spent.”

Co-authors of the report include Arthur Laffer, former member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Board and creator of the famous “Laffer Curve;” and Donna Arduin, former top fiscal advisor to Gov. Schwarzenegger in California and governors in Florida, New York and Michigan.

As Arduin explains, “Government does not create anything – it merely redistributes wealth by taking money from those who pay taxes – those who are creating jobs and wealth – and spending it with bureaucratic inefficiency, reducing the incentive for taxpayers to save, invest, and employ people.”

Government stimulus schemes not only fail to create any net new jobs, but actually reduce job growth. According to Civitas Budget and Tax Policy Analyst Brian Balfour, “Because government projects necessarily only consume resources, fewer scarce inputs are thus available for productive investment. A lower level of productive investment translates into slower economic growth and fewer jobs.”

North Carolina already has its own case study in government “stimulus” spending. Gov. Mike Easley “fast-tracked”’ nearly $750 million in state government capital improvement projects back in January, promising “these projects will produce nearly 26,000 new jobs.” In contrast to such bold claims, North Carolina has since lost 17,000 construction jobs – a contraction of roughly 8 percent – and 71,000 jobs overall.

“North Carolinians should not be fooled by grand promises of government-orchestrated economic stimulus and job creation, whether from D.C. politicians or state officials,” warned Balfour. “The findings of this study along with the disappointing results of Easley’s ‘stimulus’ show that government stimulus schemes do more harm than good.”

The study also warns of the added burden to the state as it expanded unemployment insurance benefits in order to receive ARRA funds, an observation underscored by recent media reports of the $925 million North Carolina borrowed from the federal government to meet its unemployment insurance obligations.

View “The Economic Impact of Federal Spending on State Economic Performance: A North Carolina Perspective.”

RALEIGH, NC – In spite of House Speaker Joe Hackney’s (D-Orange) bold statement that “there is no pork in this budget,” the Civitas Institute has identified nearly $300 million in questionable appropriations for the fiscal year 2009-10 state budget.

In the midst of a recession and one of the largest budget deficits in state history, lawmakers adopted $1.1 billion in new taxes in order to help balance the budget. Indeed, Hackney declared that, in part, the new taxes “saved public education and its core mission in North Carolina.”

But what else are state leaders “saving”? While higher taxes will inevitably lead to lost jobs, a closer look at the final state budget reveals that the state continues to waste millions of taxpayer dollars for animals, plants, public television, walking trails, tourist attractions and corporate welfare.

A review of budget spending that was not cut during this year’s “budget crisis” should call into question the priorities of Raleigh politicians. Included in the recently-approved spending package is:

·         $1.1 million for the executive aircraft division

·         $10 million to subsidize in-state tuition for out-of-state scholarship athletes

·         $2.9 million for the North Carolina symphony

·         $11.1 million for “tourism, film and sport development”

·         $9.4 million for marine fisheries research

·         $4.7 million for a “special zoo fund,” a “grassroots initiative” sponsored by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and the “adopt-a-trail” program

·         $8.6 million for the NC Arts Council

·         $1.1 million for the botanical garden at UNC-Chapel Hill

·         $252,000 for the “cemetery commission”

·         $563,000 for the Ergonomics Center at N.C. State

Asks Civitas Institute policy analyst Brian Balfour, “Is it really necessary to destroy private sector jobs via tax hikes in order to finance more than $40 million on museums, art councils and symphonies? In this ‘deepest recession since the great depression,’ is it appropriate for the state to spend $14 million on state-run television and more than a million dollars for state government planes?”

The Civitas Institute’s full list of questionable spending priorities can be found here.

“A little investigation makes it readily apparent that Raleigh lawmakers are more concerned about a budget that protects frivolous ‘wants’ and new, unproven programs than protecting the jobs of its citizens,” concludes Balfour.

RALEIGH, N.C. – With a NC Supreme Court ruling earlier this month clearing the legal impediments to the resumption of capital punishment in North Carolina, a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute shows public support for the death penalty remains strong.

A 600 sample live caller poll of voters asked if they supported the death penalty in North Carolina.  Sixty-four percent said yes. Only 28 percent said they opposed. Eight percent said they were unsure.

“North Carolinians remain in strong support of capital punishment as an appropriate penalty,” said Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis De Luca. “Supporters of the de facto moratorium that has been in place due to court challenges, which have now been resolved, face a public that now supports the death penalty slightly more than last year.”

The Civitas Institute polled this identical question just over one year ago in April 2008. In that poll, 60 percent said they supported the death penalty, while 27 percent said they were in opposition.

Opinion on the death penalty is highly polarized along racial makeup. Among Caucasian voters, 70 percent said they support it, while 21 percent said they oppose. However, among African-Americans, only 37 percent said they support the death penalty, while 54 percent said they are in opposition.

Full text of question:

Do you support the death penalty in North Carolina?

Yes – 64%

No – 28%

Not Sure – 8%

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted May 18-21, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Arlington, Virginia. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that:95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”   “True Values” refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

RALEIGH, N.C. – As the NC House is set to vote Tuesday on a bill (SB 575) granting a targeted tax break for one particular large company, a new poll released by the Civitas Institute shows that nearly 9 in 10 voters in North Carolina disagree with this practice.

Voters were asked which is the better way to create jobs: give targeted tax breaks and cash incentives to a few large companies or give across-the-board tax cuts to all small and medium sized businesses.  Only 7 percent of voters favored tax breaks for large companies as SB 575 would provide.  87 percent of voters favored across-the-board tax cuts for small and medium businesses.

“It is clear from these results that the General Assembly is set to take an action that is in opposition to nearly all voters in North Carolina,” said Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst at the Civitas Institute.  “Voters clearly see the need for tax relief for small businesses as more of a priority than handouts to large corporations like Apple.”

North Carolina’s current corporate income tax of 6.9 percent is higher than any of its neighboring states.

“For North Carolina to be in a position to recover from this economic slowdown, tax rates need to be lowered overall,” said Hayes.  “Voters have been burned too often by the promise of new jobs through large corporate handouts like RJR, Skybus and Dell.  They realize that giving tax breaks to multi-billion dollar corporations while mom-and-pop small businesses suffer is the wrong thing to do.”

Full text of question:

In order to create jobs, is it better to give targeted tax breaks and cash incentives to a few large companies or give across-the-board tax cuts to all small and medium sized companies?

Tax Breaks for Large Companies – 7%
Tax Cuts for Small and Medium Companies – 87%
Not Sure – 6%

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted May 18-21, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Arlington, Virginia.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

95% of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”   “True Values” refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Results of the latest Civitas Institute poll reveal strong support remains among registered voters for off-shore drilling and energy exploration despite a welcomed decline in the retail price of refined gasoline products since late 2008.

More than 71 percent of 600 respondents to the live-caller poll indicated they would allow domestic energy exploration somewhere off of the coast of North Carolina today.  Only 21.8 percent answered they would not allow drilling anywhere off the coast and 6.3 percent refused the question or were unaware.

“In the face of lower demand for gasoline and lower pump prices, voters over the past eleven months have actually increased their support for off-shore drilling,” said Francis De Luca, executive director of the Civitas Institute.

Reflecting on a similar question asked in Civitas’ June 2008 poll, 68 percent of respondents supported off-shore drilling.  Voter opposition to domestic energy exploration off the state coast totaled 20 percent last summer with 11 percent having no opinion.

“It appears voters overwhelmingly support drilling off the coast, whether it is a plurality that would allow it within sight of land or huge majorities allowing it somewhere off the coast,” said De Luca.  “Voters understand that offshore drilling will create jobs in the state and help the overall economic situation.”

Full text of questions:

When it comes to the issue of drilling for oil and natural gas off the coast of North Carolina, which of the following comes closest to your own personal opinion?

1.       Drilling for oil and natural gas should be allowed anywhere off…

2.       Drilling for oil and natural gas should only be allowed off the coast of North Carolina if it is out of sight from the shore. Or,

3.       Drilling for oil and natural gas should not be allowed at all off the coast of North Carolina.

RALEIGH, N.C. – North Carolina voters do not support an NC Senate plan to create a new tax on certain services even if tax rates overall are lowered according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the live caller poll of 600 likely voters, when asked if they approved or disapproved of a plan that would reduce the sales tax rate but would broaden the types of services taxed only 33 percent of voters approved of the measure.  53 percent disapproved, including 39 percent of voters who strongly disapproved.  14 percent were unsure.

“Voters are quite skeptical of expanding the state’s existing tax base to new services such as haircuts and home repair,” said Francis De Luca, executive director of the Civitas Institute.  “The Senate has not convinced voters that this is a good idea before springing the plan on them out of the blue.”

When asked if they would approve or disapprove of the new tax plan if they knew it raised taxes an additional $500 million, voters summarily rejected the idea.  66 percent of voters said they disapproved of the plan while only 19 percent approved.   54 percent of voters said they strongly disapproved of the Senate’s proposal to raise taxes.

“In these troubling times, voters recognize that tax increases do great harm to our state’s ability to climb out of the recession,” added De Luca.  “Voters are particularly wary of tax increases disguised at ‘tax reform.’  With two-thirds of the voters opposed to the Senate’s financing plan, Senators crafting the plan should be mindful that the voters will hold them accountable for raising taxes.”

Full text of questions:

Do you approve or disapprove of a plan by the state legislature that would reduce the sales tax rate, but would broaden the types of services that are taxed, adding haircuts, painting your house and other services to the tax rolls?

Strongly Approve – 9.2%

Somewhat Approve – 23.8%

TOTAL APPROVE – 33.0%

Somewhat Disapprove – 14.2%

Strongly Disapprove – 38.5%

TOTAL DISSAPROVE – 52.7%

Don’t Know – 14.3%

Now, would you approve or disapprove of this plan knowing that it means raising taxes by $500 million dollars?

Strongly Approve – 4.0%

Somewhat Approve – 14.5%

TOTAL APPROVE – 18.5%

Somewhat Disapprove – 12.0%

Strongly Disapprove – 53.8%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE – 65.8%

Don’t Know – 15.7%

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted April 21-23, 2009 by McLaughlin and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia.  All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers.

Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units.  These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

RALEIGH, N.C. – As North Carolina lawmakers attempt to solve this year’s $2.2 billion budget deficit and craft the budget for 2009-2010 with an estimated $3 billion shortfall, the Civitas Institute’s monthly polling surveyed public sentiment on some of the ideas and proposals up for discussion in Raleigh.

According to the live caller poll of 600 voters in North Carolina, voters generally were opposed to some of the steps Gov. Perdue has taken in order to balance this year’s budget.

Fifty-two percent of voters opposed the Governor using $100 million from the Clean Water Management Trust Fund to balance the budget, while only 29 percent approved. Likewise, 51 percent of voters opposed her taking $88 million from the Education Lottery’s Reserve Fund to make ends meet. Voters were evenly split on her decision to take $50 million from the Public School Building Capital Fund with 47 percent opposed, 46 percent supporting.

In response to her budget request to close seven state prisons in order to save $24 million, 65 percent of voters opposed that action. Only 24 percent approved.

“Many of Gov. Perdue’s actions and proposals are getting a mixed reaction with the voters of North Carolina,” said Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis De Luca. “The only clear majority stands in opposition to her proposal to close prisons. The Governor will have to sell the idea that closing prisons that are more expensive to operate is a smart move.”

Other ideas being floated by the General Assembly received mixed support:

·        54 percent of voters support using money from the Golden Leaf fund to balance the budget; only 22 percent disapproved.

·        51 percent of voters support cutting all government departments by nine percent to save $1.9 billion; 35 percent disapproved.

·        49 percent of voters support saving $10 million by merging “More and Four” and “Smart Start”; 33 percent disapproved.

Some ideas voters rejected outright:

·        When asked if state government should save $480 million by cutting the pay of all state employees making more than $30,000 by five percent, 68 percent of voters said no.

·        54 percent of voters rejected a one percent sales tax increase.

“Voters are conflicted on the best way to solve North Carolina’s budget crisis. They seem adverse to tax increases, but don’t have real strong opinions on how to save money,” added De Luca. “If the plan is to make no moves, which evoke a strong public reaction, they are succeeding.”

Full text of questions:

“In order to close North Carolina’s $2.2 billion budget deficit, do you support or oppose each of the following:”

“Save $150 million by increasing public school class sizes by 2 students from 21 to 23?”

Support- 47%

Oppose- 45%

Not Sure- 8%

“Save $1.9 billion by cutting all government departments by 9%?”

Support- 51%

Oppose- 35%

Not Sure- 14%

“Save $10 million by combining “More at Four” and “Smart Start” into one early childhood education program?”

Support- 49%

Oppose- 33%

Not Sure-17%

“Save $24 million by closing seven state prisons?”

Support- 24%

Oppose- 65%

Not Sure-11%

“Use $88 million from the Education Lottery’s Reserve Fund?”

Support- 41%

Oppose- 51%

Not Sure- 8%

“Use $100 million from the Clean Water Trust Fund?”

Support- 29%

Oppose- 52%

Not Sure- 19%

“Use $700 million of tobacco settlement money in the Golden Leaf Fund?”

Support- 54%

Oppose- 22%

Not Sure- 23%

“Use $50 million from a fund for counties to build and renovate schools?”

Support- 46%

Oppose- 47%

Not Sure- 7%

“Save $480 million by cutting salaries for state employees who earn more than $30,000 by 5%?”

Support- 23%

Oppose- 68%

Not Sure- 9%

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted Mar.16 to 19, 2009. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”  True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Only three months after a record-breaking voter turnout in the 2008 election, potential candidates for an open North Carolina U.S. Senate seat in 2010 all start out with very low statewide name recognition.

See Full Results

According to the latest Civitas Poll, a majority of voters in North Carolina are not aware of either the incumbent US Senator Richard Burr (R) or his two rumored potential opponents in 2010, Congressman Heath Shuler (D), or N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper (D).

“While Senator Burr enjoys a slightly higher overall favorable rating than the other two, none of the three potential candidates are widely known among the electorate,” said Francis De Luca, executive director of the Civitas Institute. “Congressman Shuler is a virtual unknown outside of his district in Western N.C.” |

Current N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper and US Congressman Heath Shuler are among the two most publicly speculated candidates to challenge Burr.

“Despite being in office an additional three plus years, taking over the highly publicized Duke lacrosse case, and just recently spending in excess of $2.5 million on re-election, Attorney General Cooper has only marginally improved his favorability since October 2005,” said De Luca.

Civitas tested voters’ opinion of Roy Cooper back in October 2005:
Favorable: 23%
Unfavorable: 4%
Unsure: 25%
Not aware: 47%

“All three candidates have a tremendous amount of work to do to familiarize themselves with voters over the next two years. It is almost as if voters are starting off with a blank slate of candidates to choose from for their next US Senator,” De Luca concluded.

The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues and policies facing North Carolina. Complete results of the poll will be released at noon on Thursday, Jan. 29 at the Clarion Hotel in downtown Raleigh during the monthly poll luncheon hosted by Civitas.

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted Jan. 19-22, 2009. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

RALEIGH, N.C. – North Carolina voters want bar and restaurant owners to have the ability to set their own smoking policy according to a new poll released Thursday by Civitas Institute.

Rep. Hugh Holliman (D-Davidson) Wednesday reintroduced a bill (HB 2) identical to one that was defeated two years ago that would ban cigarette smoking in all bars, restaurants and enclosed workplaces.

According to the poll of 600 North Carolina voters, when asked if a bar or restaurant owner should be able to set their own smoking policy given that it is clearly posted at the entrance to the restaurant, 62 percent of voters voiced their support, while 34 percent opposed the proposal. Three percent were not sure.

“Rep. Holliman’s draconian ban leaves no exception for restaurant or bar owners to have the ability to set their own policy,” said Chris Hayes, senior legislative analyst for the Civitas Institute. “Voters clearly recognize that private businesses should be able to set their own policies for a legal activity, such as smoking, so long as the public is adequately informed before entering the establishment.”

A state policy banning smoking in bars and restaurants, but allowing them to “opt-in” and permit smoking so long as it is clearly advertised within the establishment was adopted two years ago in Virginia, but vetoed by Gov. Mark Warner.

“Providing an ‘opt-in’ provision for bars and restaurants would protect the interests of private businesses while allowing consumers to make an informed decision about which businesses to patronize,” Hayes added. “If left free from government intervention, ultimately, the market will set smoking policies in restaurants. As consumers demand more and more options for smoke-free establishments, businesses will respond in the way that best suits its bottom line.”

Full text of question:

“Would you support or oppose legislation allowing a restaurant, bar or tavern owner to decide their own smoking policy as long as the policy was clearly posted at the entrance to their business?”

Support – 62%
Oppose – 34%
Not Sure – 3% 

The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues and policies facing North Carolina. Complete results of the poll will be released at noon on Thursday, Jan. 29 at the Clarion Hotel in downtown Raleigh during the monthly poll luncheon hosted by Civitas.

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted January 19-22, 2009.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.