RALEIGH, N.C. – Reality is setting in now that Gov. Beverly Perdue and the Legislature are getting their arms around North Carolina’s share of the federal stimulus package.
Even $3.7 billion won’t be enough.
That’s how much money Perdue’s office now says state leaders can expect at their disposal to narrow projected budget gaps through mid-2011 from the $6.1 billion in stimulus money heading to North Carolina. The rest of the money has strings attached, is earmarked for items like building roads, or won’t be available for a while.
The amounts are huge. But the federal money still won’t be enough to fill the holes completely in those state budgets, even when combined with huge state spending cuts.
Perdue’s office estimates the difference between projected revenues and expenses for the next fiscal year starting July 1 alone could be $3.6 billion before the budget is written, according to an administration document obtained by The Associated Press. That’s equal to 17 percent of this year’s $21.4 billion budget approved by the Legislature.
Even with what social justice advocates call a devastating level of cuts suggested, combined with the stimulus money, the document suggests the state would still be $500 million short of balancing the budget.
“We still have a tremendous hole to plug,” said Perdue, who will present her first budget as governor to the Legislature by mid-March. “We’ve got some hope in the air, (and) I can get us through this. But I don’t want anybody to be fooled. There are going to be tough, hard decisions made.”
State lawmakers said they always knew the stimulus wouldn’t solve all the budget problems.
“Some people are going to get hurt,” said Rep. Mickey Michaux, D-Durham, the senior co-chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Save for protecting education and social services programs, “we’re going to just have to take an ax” to other agencies, he added.
Those preliminary numbers, shown to top Democratic legislators at the Executive Mansion late last week, could build pressure upon them to raise taxes to avoid further cuts.
“We’re going to have find a way to put revenues on the table, and that is with a document that supposes extremely deep budget cuts that I think would be felt in every community across the state,” said Meg Gray Wiehe, an analyst with North Carolina Budget & Tax Center. The outside group estimates next year’s budget gap could be $4 billion.
Some lawmakers are interested in raising cigarette and alcohol taxes but won’t consider broad increases to sales and income tax rates because it’s the wrong tactic in a slowing economy. Other federal stimulus money is designed to create jobs and give tax breaks.
“Obviously, large cuts are required and they need to be carefully considered,” House Speaker Joe Hackney, D-Orange, said of Perdue’s budget, but added: “We’re just very hopeful what the stimulus will do for us.”
But it will only go so far.
According to the document, Perdue will be able to use $781 million in stimulus money to close this year’s budget shortfall of $2.2 billion by June 30.
Next year, the governor estimates a $3.6 billion budget gap based on a revenue forecast of $18.8 billion compared to expenses of $22.4 billion. The Perdue administration envisions spending $1.7 billion in stimulus money. But with a suggested $1.4 billion in budget reductions, the plan would still be $500 million short.
A similar projection for 2010-11 – a $3.1 billion deficit with $1.2 billion in stimulus money and $1.4 billion in cuts – would leave the state an additional $500 million short again, according to the document.
Perdue’s office points out the broad budget cuts suggested in the document are options – nothing has yet been recommended.
They include reducing spending at most state agencies by 10 percent on average, with a 7.5 percent reduction for higher education and Department of Health and Human Services and a 4.5 percent reduction for the public schools.
“These … numbers have significant and really profound human consequences,” said Rob Thompson with the Covenant with North Carolina’s Children. The group is part of a new coalition called Together NC, which plans an event this week urging legislators not to use spending cuts alone to balance the budget.
Wiehe said it’s an opportune moment for legislators to consider reforming the tax code, creating additional revenues. A popular idea among many Together NC members is to change how multistate corporations are taxed based on an accurate percentage of their activities in the state.
The shortfalls have been “made much worse because we have an outdated revenue system that hasn’t kept up with the 21st century,” Wiehe said.
Michaux said finding cost savings in state government is paramount. While not endorsing the idea, he pointed out that increasing all public school class sizes by only one student each could save the state $170 million.
Raising taxes, Michaux said, are “going to be one of the last things in my mind that’s going to be considered.”