Even as the U.S. presence is on the verge of receding in Iraq, America needs to stay engaged with that key Middle Eastern nation, two international experts said in Richmond on Wednesday.

“Iraq could be a positive force in the region,” said former Iraqi defense official Nazar Janabi.But, Janabi said, “that will require some strategic patience” on the part of America.

Beyond that, said former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq David G. Newton,”America has an obligation to leave a viable [Iraqi] government behind.”

Besides, Newton said, “We do not want to have to go back there a third time.”

Janabi is now with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Newton is with the Middle East Institute in Washington.

The two spoke to about 150 people at a World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond program at the Omni Richmond Hotel on Wednesday night.

Continued engagement with Iraq is important because that country has about 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and sits in the middle of one of the world’s most volatile regions, Janabi said.

“It could be come a terrorist safe haven and the scene of future regional wars,” he said, “or it could become a stable and prosperous U.S. ally.”

And the U.S. has a moral obligation to the Iraqis to help repair the damage of the war, Newton said.

“What matters now is not how U.S. presence in Iraq started,” Janabi said, “but how it will change in the next four years.”

America’s infusion of troops into Iraq last year — the “surge” — has reduced violence and that “makes other things possible” to help build a stable society there, Newton said.

Though he decried the Bush administration’s decision to go to war in Iraq, “we can now have more hope,”

Newton said. “You can talk about success, if you define it carefully.”

Still, the retired diplomat said, “the progress made in Iraq is fragile.” Violence could easily flare up again.

The challenge facing the United States, Janabi said, is to prevent the emergence of authoritarian regimes — civilian or military — again in Iraq.

“It can do this by ensuring free and fair elections in Iraq in 2009, in the hope that this leads to the emergence of countervailing centers of power to check that of the central government,” the Iraqi analyst said, “and by maintaining a residual presence in Iraq beyond 2011 to deter the military from undertaking a coup.”

Janabi served from 2004 to 2006 as director general for defense policy and requirements in the Iraqi Ministry of Defense. He now focuses on Iraqi and Middle Eastern security issues and democratization in the region.
Newton served as the U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 1984 to 1988 and as ambassador to Yemen from 1994 to 1997.

By MARSHA MERCER
Media General News Service

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama’s picks for his Cabinet are reassuring because they have Washington experience – unless they’re disappointing for that very reason.

It depends on where you’re standing. Inside-the-Beltway types are relieved to see a familiar cast of characters returning to power, even if they disagree with some previous policies.

Many voters, in contrast, hold the romantic notion that Ordinary Joes should come to Washington, roll up their sleeves and clean house. The “experts” in Washington have messed things up royally. Besides, didn’t Obama promise change?

Whether you’re reassured or disappointed by Obama’s Cabinet choices, though, one thing is clear. Washington experience is “in” again. It never really was out. A president has to deal with Congress to get his policies enacted, and that takes skill and knowledge of the ways of Washington.

Obama is assembling a practiced team of congressional and federal government officials to help run the administration. He started with his running mate Joe Biden, a six-term Senate veteran. Biden was at Obama’s side Monday, when Obama said “Vice president-elect Biden and I are pleased to announce…our economic team…”

Obama used the word experience half a dozen times at the news conference. He said he’s bringing together “the best minds in America to guide us” through the global economic crisis. Catch that? “Guide us.”

That’s about as close anyone in power in Washington ever comes to admitting he doesn’t have all the answers and needs help finding them. It’s a surprising admission after a campaign in which for two years Obama finessed his short tenure on Capitol Hill and brilliantly made lemonade from the lemons of his inexperience.

The change reflects the gravity of the challenges ahead. He stresses constantly that the economic crisis is historical and global.

When he picked Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary, Obama said the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York “offers not just extensive experience shaping economic policy and managing financial markets; he also has an unparalleled understanding of our current economic crisis in all of its depth, complexity and urgency.”

It didn’t hurt that Geithner, 47, formerly at Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, has lived and worked internationally and has studied Japanese and Chinese.

Obama’s choice for White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, was deputy chief of staff under President Bill Clinton. In his role as No. 4 Democrat in the House, Emanuel was known as a fierce partisan fighter. But Obama said when he picked Emanuel, “No one I know is better at getting things done.”

In the wings are Sen. Hillary Clinton, former first lady and presidential rival, for secretary of State; former Senator and U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson for secretary of Commerce; and former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle to head Health and Human Services.

Last February, Hillary Clinton said in a Democratic presidential candidates’ debate in Cleveland, “We’ve seen the tragic result of having a president who had neither the experience nor the wisdom to manage our foreign policy and safeguard our national security. We cannot let that happen again.” Presumably, she’s feeling better about Obama at the helm now.

As if responding to those who worry that installing Clintonites in his Cabinet is a retread of the 1990s, Obama frequently reminds that change won’t come overnight, and he warns that there are no shortcuts to fix the economic crisis. He said he wants in his team a blend of “sound judgment and fresh thinking.”

Obama promises to hit the ground running to stave off predicted waves of layoffs. The first test will be whether he can get his economic stimulus package enacted right away. Without providing an estimate of its size or scope, he says it will address the foreclosure crisis, help the auto industry, create 2.5 million jobs by 2011, rebuild roads and bridges, modernize schools and create clean energy. Estimates start at $500 billion to $700 billion and up.

Obama’s vision of a can-do America may help quell people’s anxiety while the wonks come up with strategies to navigate these perilous storms. Wall Street liked what it heard about the new Cabinet. The market closed up more than 350 points Monday. Washington experience is good.