TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – It’s likely Jeb Bush could have tapped his reputation as governor and an extensive fundraising network to keep a key U.S. Senate seat – and possibly a filibuster-proof majority – out of Democratic hands in 2010.

But the president’s younger brother said he won’t run for Republican Mel Martinez’ Senate seat, and political experts say Florida’s race is a toss-up. Neither party has come up with a name as big as Bush, the only Republican elected to two terms as the state’s governor.

It could prove a challenge for the once-dominant GOP in the wake of President-elect Barack Obama’s victory in Florida, as Democrats widened their grassroots operation and stepped up their fundraising efforts.

“It’s going to be a big race, it’s going to be an expensive race,” said Jamie Miller, a Florida-based Republican political consultant who has worked on Senate and statewide campaigns. “The stakes are much higher.”

If Al Franken’s recount victory in Minnesota holds, Democrats will have 59 seats, just one shy of being able to stop a Republican filibuster. With complete Senate control on the line, both parties will put a lot of resources into Florida. Bush, who won the 1998 and 2002 gubernatorial elections by more than 10 percentage points, announced this week he wouldn’t run after previously saying he would consider it. Now, only two candidates known to be considering a Senate run have won a statewide race: Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and

Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum. Each would have the advantage of name recognition and a statewide support network in a primary.

There also are several congressmen from both parties considering a run, as well as former legislative leaders.

Until recently, Republicans dominated Florida politics. Between 2000 and 2004, Republicans won seven of eight statewide races, while building leads in the state Legislature and in Florida’s representation in Congress. The state GOP raised more money and had a strong grassroots operation.

But Democrats have done a better job registering new voters and turned out more early voters during November’s presidential election, helping Obama carry Florida.

Democrats have become less apprehensive about Florida since the party has split six statewide races with Republicans since 2006, said David Beattie, a Democratic strategist based in Fernandina Beach.

“It’s going to be a nationally watched race just because of the size of the state and the impact, and the fact that it’s starting now,” he said. “It’s not going to be a boring time.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been wooing Sink, who was preparing to announce re-election plans for her CFO seat when Martinez said last month he wouldn’t seek a second term.

Since then she’s been reconsidering, especially with the pressure from Washington.

McCollum was planning to seek another term as attorney general, but immediately said he will think about the Senate seat. That’s no surprise, considering he’s lost two previous Senate races.

Florida’s diverse population includes nearly 4 million registered Republicans, 4.5 million Democrats and nearly 2 million unaffiliated voters. It can be tough for little-known candidates to spread their message across the vast territory from the western panhandle to the southern peninsula, which includes both sprawling urban centers and rural enclaves. Statewide TV ads can cost up to $1 million a week.

Candidates who don’t have statewide name recognition realize they have to start campaigning and fundraising soon. Miller estimates a winning campaign could cost as much as $35 million.

“It’s really going to be a challenge. The good news for all Republicans is the name Obama will not be on the ballot,” said David Johnson, a Tallahassee-based Republican political strategist.

He added that Gov. Charlie Crist’s bid for re-election could also help drive Republicans to the polls.

But Obama could might help sway more voters than Crist could, said Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman.

“My guess is that there will be some strong, strong abilities for fundraising,” she said. “We have a president who can click a button and raise $50 million.”

MIAMI – First she hung up on President-elect Barack Obama – twice. Now Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is fielding calls from angry constituents who think she did it on purpose.
 
The Miami congresswoman says she and the Democrat had a good laugh Wednesday after she apologized profusely for assuming his calls were a prank.

“I was just flabbergasted,” Ros-Lehtinen said Thursday. “I just hung up on the most powerful man on earth – twice.”

She said Obama called to congratulate her on her re-election, saying he was looking forward to working with her as the ranking Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs committee.

But she assumed it was a radio station prank. Typically, when high-ranking officials call, an aide calls in advance to verify. That was the procedure recently when Ros-Lehtinen received a call from Sen. Hillary Clinton.

“But this one was just out of the blue he’s calling me. And I said, ‘Boy, you’re a much better impersonator than that guy on Saturday Night Live,’ and he’s laughing and he’s thinking I’m kidding,” she said.

Obama tried convincing her that he truly was the president-elect, but Ros-Lehtinen says she “wished him the best of luck and told him I was going to hang up on him.”

A few minutes later, Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s chief of staff, called the congresswoman with Obama on the line to tell her it wasn’t a joke.
 
“I said I really do appreciate it. I love these pranks more than anybody and I’m honored that you would prank me, but I’m gonna hang up.”
 
And she did.

It took a call from Rep. Howard Berman, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, to persuade Ros-Lehtinen that Obama really did want to talk to her. She asked Berman to tell her an inside joke about a colleague that only they would know to make sure the phone call was legitimate.
 
When Obama finally called back, the congresswoman said they talked about policies on Cuba and Israel.

He told her “anytime my ego gets too pumped up, I think Michelle will remind me that you hung up not once, but twice on me,” Ros-Lehtinen said.

Obama’s office has not commented on the mix-up.

At least in presidential politics, Florida is purple again after looking reddish for the past decade – but that doesn’t guarantee Florida Democrats any resurgence in state-level elections.

John McCain’s loss, ironically, reopens the national political scene for Gov. Charlie Crist.

Many Crist supporters and allies were angry when he wasn’t chosen as McCain’s running mate. With McCain off the stage, they think Crist can be among the contenders for national leadership of the party.

That’s some of the political fallout from Tuesday’s election, in which Obama became the first Democrat to win the state’s 27 electoral votes since 1996.

His Florida win, proving a Democrat can win here statewide, may embolden Democrats to challenge Republicans in such contests as the coming 2010 governor and U.S. Senate races.

Alex Sink of Tampa, the state’s chief financial officer, could be among them. She is considered a leading future electoral prospect for the Democrats.

But Obama’s victory doesn’t mean the Florida Democratic Party has suddenly acquired the muscle and organizational skill of its rival.

“This was an Obama victory created out of whole cloth by the Obama campaign,” said Alan Katz of Tallahassee, one of Obama’s earliest Florida supporters. The state party, Katz said, must be revamped before it can duplicate such an effort.

GOP Remains Unfazed
Republicans contend the Obama win shows no underlying change in the political leaning of the state, which they say is Republican.

In a recent memo on Republican talking points sent to party activists, party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle said the overall election results “bode very well for the future in Florida,” noting that the Obama campaign outspent McCain heavily.

“If you look at Congressional races, State House and Senate, and Constitutional Amendments, Florida Republicans had a good night” on Tuesday, she said. “The 2008 election results are simply not indicative of a huge change in the electorate in Florida.”

Still, the Obama campaign will leave behind benefits for state Democrats.

“A lot of volunteers got brought into the process by the president-elect, but once people start getting involved, a lot of them tend to stay involved,” said state party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. “We know the people who were involved, and we can go to them again in the future.”

Research indicates that many of the thousands of new voters Obama recruited are likely to remain loyal Democrats, said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus.

“You’re excited as a first-time voter, especially if you volunteer, and if your candidate wins you’re even more excited,” she said. “That locks you in to that party for most of your life, if not all your life.”

Obama’s win, however, won’t give Democrats much help in building the middle tier of politics – the state legislative and congressional offices – that prepares officeholders for the bigger races.

“On a statewide level Florida is winnable” for a Democrat, said Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, a former state representative elected Tuesday to the state Senate.

But Gelber, who is also considered a potential statewide candidate, pointed out that few legislative or congressional seats changed hands Tuesday despite the Obama win, and said that is partly because the districts for those seats were drawn to protect the electoral prospects of the incumbents – mostly Republicans.

“It’s going to be hard to push the current totals much further without a redistricting change,” he said. That can’t come until after the 2010 census, and a district plan would have to be voted on by the Legislature, still GOP-dominated. “We need a Democratic governor who can veto reapportionment plans, or we’re out of luck until 2020,” the next census and redistricting, Gelber said.

Democrats point out that the current districting plan has produced large Republican majorities in the state House, state Senate and congressional delegation, even though Tuesday’s result and the last two presidential elections all showed a relatively evenly divided state.

Sink said in a recent Tribune interview that she will look at the possibility of a U.S. Senate run, particularly if Republican Sen. Mel Martinez decides not to run for re-election in 2010.

Sink has said in the past that she’d rather run for governor but doesn’t want to run against a popular incumbent like Crist.

Races For Money Don’t Wait
Martinez has not said yet whether he will run for re-election, but he has filed a statement of candidacy and is raising money. He has raised about $1.7 million in this two-year election cycle and had about $1.2 million in his campaign fund as of Sept. 30.

Sink will have to decide soon if she is to raise the money and mount a competitive campaign.

“It’s very encouraging – it shows a good candidate with a good campaign and organization can win statewide,” she said, when asked if Obama’s win will affect her decision.

Crist is certain to run for re-election.

He is also being mentioned repeatedly in the national press and by GOP insiders as among the rising new faces in the party. Two reasons for this: He was on McCain’s short list of running mate choices, giving him national media exposure, and he is governor of the nation’s fourth-largest state, one that’s a must-win state for a GOP presidential candidate.

Obama’s win in Florida makes it more likely that Democrats will put up a credible candidate to run against Crist, MacManus said.

Crist’s job approval ratings remain high, seemingly insulating him from the anti-Republican political climate. However, MacManus said, “He disappointed a lot of Republicans by not being more active in the McCain campaign.”

A Florida elections official has taken the extreme measure of sleeping with his county’s ballots to ensure the integrity of the vote.

In 2000, the presidential election was marred by hanging chads in Florida. Four years later, it was malfunctioning machines in Ohio. With record numbers of voters expected yet again, the fundamental question remains whether the country’s embattled election machinery will stand up to the pressure.
  
This year’s unprecedented primary turnout has already exposed cracks in the infrastructure. In Texas, lines stretched for hours and ballots ran out. Voters in Virginia were told to submit slips of paper – which were later disqualified – when ballot deliveries didn’t arrive, and overwhelmed poll workers in Washington, D.C., hid electronic machines because they were afraid of the contraptions.

“Right now, election officials probably identify with Sheriff Brody in ‘Jaws,’ who having seen the great white shark for the first time turns to his fellow passengers and remarks, ‘We’re gonna need a bigger boat,”‘ electionline.org director Doug Chapin said in a recent study of voting problems.

Primary turnout broke records across the country – in Delaware and the District of Columbia, the number of voters tripled from 2000; in Florida that figured doubled. The only state with less than 50 percent turnout was New Hampshire, which lost some of its luster as the first primary state when most of the country moved
theirs to early in the year.
 
Though nearly all election officials have taken extra precautions for Tuesday – some have ordered a paper ballot for every registered voter as well as increasing the number of electronic machines – substantial fear remains that polling places won’t be able to stand up to millions of voters who want to choose between Democrat Barack Obama, who could become the first black president in American history, and Republican John McCain.

“The ultimate test of democracy is full voter participation,” said NAACP president Ben Jealous. “States are not completely grasping what they’re in for. In Virginia, the governor won’t even agree to printing out additional paper ballots. Even though they started passing out sheets of paper during the primary because they ran out of ballots.”

Foreshadowing what could be a litigious ending to this year’s election, the NAACP filed a federal lawsuit in Virginia, demanding more electronic machines in minority neighborhoods, and extra paper ballots in case those machines are tied up by record turnout. A judge denied the request Monday following a hearing.

State Republicans had contended that changing voting procedures this late in the game could disadvantage their candidates.
 
Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, an Obama supporter, says the added precautions aren’t necessary. “We feel confident that we’ll be prepared,” said gubernatorial spokeswoman Delacey Skinner. “I think that voters who are going to the polls on election day should go early and be prepared for the line, but we’re not anticipating any kind of major problems.”

Major voting problems disrupted the 2000 presidential election when poorly punched ballots, which resulted in hanging chads, and huge turnouts ignited a volatile, weekslong recount that ended with a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. In 2004, lines that stretched 14 hours long and malfunctioning electronic machines created havoc in Ohio, which eventually gave George W. Bush a second term by a margin of about 119,000 votes.

In the past eight years, with money appropriated by Congress, local election officials across the country have changed their voting systems – and changed them again when highly touted electronic voting machines were shown to be vulnerable to hacking and malfunctioning.

On Tuesday, nearly half the country will be casting ballots on a new system, the majority of them using paper cards read by optical scanners.
 
But it is not the machines that most worry voting advocates. It’s the number of people using them.
 
Already, early voting in states including Florida and Georgia drew crowds that waited for hours and prompted people to bring lawn chairs, and poll workers to hand out bottled water. In Colorado, more than 50 percent of registered voters cast ballots early.

“Suppose Tuesday comes and goes and there’s allegations that tens of thousands of people went to vote and were unable to cast a ballot and went home,” said Edward B. Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University who specializes in voting litigation. “There’s the claim of disenfranchisement but no way to prove it. That would be extraordinarily undesirable.”

When it comes to election lawsuits, and there have been scores filed since the 2000 meltdown, the most likely litigious issue in this election is provisional ballots.

They were introduced in 2003 as part of the Help America Vote Act, a far-ranging reform of election systems and voting laws designed to avoid a repeat of Florida’s disaster. People at the polls who believe they have been wrongly denied the right to vote – people whose names don’t show up on registration lists, for example – have the right to cast provisional ballots.
 
But rules about counting those ballots sharply differ from state to state, creating confusion and prompting about 20 lawsuits in the past five years, Foley said. In several states, provisional ballots not cast in the proper precinct are thrown out.

With an unprecedented number of voters expected on Tuesday – many of them newly registered, raising the possibility that their names didn’t make it onto registration lists – Foley said the provisional ballot may be the hanging chad of 2008.

“They’re an insurance policy for voters against wrongful removal from the polls,” he said. “But it’s a ballot with a question mark on it. Most states have not created uniform rules for counting them.”

It’s happening again. We knew it would.

As the presidential race narrows to a handful of states where the two candidates are clawing to get over the top, Florida would be each man’s top prize. And the Tampa Bay area is their key to Florida.

As in 2000 and 2004, the race here has exploded in a welter of television ads, “robocalls,” visiting celebrities and mega-rallies.

The result, according to experts, political insiders and a rash of conflicting polls, is a race in Florida that’s simply too close to call. Either candidate could win.

But for John McCain and Barack Obama, a win would have drastically different meanings.

Obama can win the presidency in Florida, but he can’t lose it here.

McCain can lose the presidency in Florida, but he can’t win it here.

That’s because for McCain, Florida is a must-win. The arithmetic of the Electoral College and the states where the two are competing mean McCain can’t reach a majority without Florida’s 27 electoral votes.

“If Obama wins Florida, we’ll all go to bed early on election night,” said veteran political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.

But even if McCain scores a victory in Florida, as his supporters say they are confident he will, he must win other contested battleground states to become president.

Unfortunately for McCain, those are all states that President Bush won in 2004 but that Obama is now leading, tied or close.

Besides the largest battleground, Florida, Sabato listed Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, all with Obama leads, and North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota, where polls generally show tossups.

That means Obama is on offense, threatening to take back Republican-leaning states. McCain is on defense in a war being fought on what should be his turf.

“Obama doesn’t need Florida – he’s got so many advantages now,” Sabato said. “A chance of carrying both Montana and North Dakota, both strong red states, and a tie in Indiana, where Bush won by 27 points in ‘04.”
Nonetheless, Obama has been drastically outspending McCain in Florida on television advertising, and equaling or exceeding him in personal appearances.

Obama; his wife, Michelle; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton; and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson barnstormed Florida for the first three days of last week to urge early voting.

McCain answered with two stops in Florida on Thursday, plus tours by daughter Meghan McCain and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

With a significant Electoral College lead in state-by-state polls, Obama has the luxury of campaigning where he wants, but McCain must keep one foot planted in Florida and pivot to other states.

McCain has been promising supporters he would bring his Florida TV spending up to parity. Brian Ballard, his state co-chairman, expected near-equality by last week.

But for the seven days ending Tuesday, Obama spent $4.3 million to McCain’s $1.1 million plus another $400,000 spent on McCain’s behalf by the national Republican Party, said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political spending.

The Nielsen Co., which tracks numbers of political spots, showed a 3-to-1 advantage for Obama through Wednesday.

Obama will appear at a rally with Bill Clinton in Orlando on Wednesday. Sarah Palin was in Tampa and Kissimmee on Sunday, and Joe Biden is to appear in New Port Richey on Monday, following the visit of his wife, Jill, to Tampa on Saturday. McCain’s wife, Cindy, and Rudy Giuliani were in West Palm Beach Sunday.
McCain, many experts say, should not be in danger of losing Florida.

After Obama and other Democratic candidates boycotted the state’s Jan. 29 primary and Obama didn’t set up a campaign organization until summer, many insiders expected a relatively easy McCain win.

McCain also had the support of Gov. Charlie Crist, whose endorsement helped him win the Florida primary. Crist promised to deliver the state for McCain.

The governor may still keep that promise. But since McCain picked Palin as his running mate, disappointing Crist, there have been questions about whether Crist has been campaigning wholeheartedly for McCain. The governor contends he has.

No one denies there has been tension and disagreement between the state party and the McCain campaign about who should run the show.

There’s also disagreement among recent polls.

Some show McCain coming back from a deficit early in the month to lead by a percentage point or two, statistical ties. But a few have shown Obama with leads of 5 to 7 percentage points.

“Some of these pollsters are going to look smart and some stupid on Election Day,” Sabato said.

Even some veteran Florida political operatives are mystified.

“Bizarre numbers,” said longtime GOP strategist Cory Tilley. “You just have to come to one conclusion: It’s close – probably close to the margin of error.”

Ballard said private polls he has seen convince him McCain is slightly ahead.

Democratic pollster Jim Kitchens offered an explanation for the mixed results: Pollsters don’t know how to account for the large numbers of new voters, mostly young people and minorities, that Obama’s campaign has registered.

Pollsters “weight” their samples, counting some responses more, to make up for underrepresented demographic groups. Some pollsters may be weighting young and minority respondents to take account of the new registrants.

But will those traditionally low-turnout minorities and young people show up to vote, proving the polls accurate?

“Ain’t that the question?” Kitchens said. “I think it’s close, but Obama has a bit of an edge.”

Tilley said the election “will come down to who has the best organization, who can motivate their base, turn out their voters and sway those undecideds.

“The good news on the Republican side is we’ve proven we do that pretty well,” he said.

But Tallahassee City Council member Allan Katz, an early Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign has changed the dynamics of Florida politics with its thousands of new registrants and by putting together the kind of turnout organization Florida Republicans have long had but Democrats never did.

“We have a very good chance of carrying Florida,” he said.

Judging by where he’s putting his money and his time, one person who believes him is Barack Obama.

Sen. John McCain has increased his chances in one of Florida’s most competitive counties, but the big battleground of Ohio may be leaning toward Barack Obama, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.

Republican John McCain is holding a series of “Joe the Plumber” events aimed at blue-collar workers as he hopes to keep Florida from swinging to Barack Obama.

He’s riding the “Straight Talk Express” from Ormond Beach on the Atlantic Coast to Sarasota on the Gulf Coast, a route that traverses the vote-rich “I-4 Corridor” through central Florida.

McCain also plans to make some informal stops along the way in between the more formal rallies.

Recent polls show McCain and Obama running close, but Obama has been bombarding Florida with TV ads while campaigning with Senator Hillary Clinton.

Early voting in Florida started Monday and about 150,000 people have already cast their ballots.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama is addressing the constant criticisms of his tax plan coming from John McCain.

McCain claims Obama wants to redistribute wealth, prompting Obama to start giving a point-by-point rebuttal of those arguments, which he’ll make today in Indiana.
 
In yet another state that voted Republican in 2004, Obama plans to tell voters that it’s he, not McCain, who would provide more new tax relief to middle-class families.

After a morning rally, Obama heads to Hawaii to visit his ill grandmother.

Yesterday in Virginia, Obama said the difference between his plan and McCain’s is in who would actually get a tax cut. He says McCain “is in cahoots with Joe the CEO.”

MIAMI – Florida kicked off early voting on Monday, with record crowds heading to the polls and voters waiting hours to cast their ballots. Elections officials said the few reported problems were minor.
 
Final statewide numbers for ballots cast Monday won’t be available until Tuesday, but counties large and small, traditionally Democrat and traditionally Republican, were reporting record turnout. The early voting sites will remain open two weeks until the weekend before Election Day.

“Lines are a sign of a healthy democracy, and certainly our democracy is healthy today,” said Secretary of State Kurt Browning.

The Sunshine State is again key this election season, with a prize of 27 electoral votes – 10 percent of the 270 needed to clinch the election. The state’s disputed election in 2000 gave the presidency to George W. Bush, and he captured the state in 2004. This year, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are locked in a close race.

Registration numbers released Sunday show a 600,000-voter edge for Democrats over Republicans in Florida: 4.7 million versus 4.1 million, with 2.1 million people identifying with neither party.

The McCain campaign acknowledged it expected more Democrats than Republicans to vote early, but says GOP voters have requested 295,000 absentee ballots statewide compared with 199,000 Democrats.

Underscoring how important the state is, Obama campaigned in Tampa, while former Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton held an event for him in Fort Lauderdale. They planned to appear together at an evening rally in Orlando.

On the Republican side, Meghan McCain, the candidate’s daughter, was meeting with voters in central Florida, and her father planned to visit later in the week.

One McCain supporter was Jim Stancarone, an 86-year-old heavy truck equipment salesman, who called the Arizona senator “the lesser of two evils.” He had been waiting for 45 minutes at a suburban Fort Lauderdale library and expected to be there two more hours.

Farther north in Palm Beach County, about 150 people waited outside the elections office. Many wore Obama T-shirts and buttons.

Dee Keener, 70, a retired secretary, said she voted for Obama – even though she is a registered Republican.
 
“Obama’s got the inspiration, the intelligence, the will to stay above all the dirty politics. It’s just the man. I don’t know how to explain it … I’m shaking just talking about Obama,” said Keener, who added she hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992. “      Turnout was also heavy in the Florida Panhandle, where McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent 5½ years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, is expected to do well among the large military contingent. Still, Obama had his supporters there.

Nationwide, about a third of the electorate is expected to vote early this year. That would be up from 22 percent in 2004 and 16 percent in 2000. In Florida, early voting continues until the weekend before Election Day.

Voters in every state can now cast ballots through early voting or absentee voting programs. Results won’t be released until Nov. 4, but a look at those who have voted shows the Democrats have been aggressive.

In Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, Democrats – or at least those living in heavily Democratic areas – are requesting and submitting ballots in large numbers. In Florida, Republicans hold an edge, while in Indiana, absentee voting has been split among Republican and Democratic areas.