RALEIGH, N.C. – If early numbers are any indication it looks like North Carolina is due
for some very close political races in 2010.

On the generic ballot for the state legislature Republicans lead 45-44 and when it comes
to Congress it’s an almost equally close 45-43 Republican advantage.

Republicans are faring well for two key reasons. First, they have a significant edge with
independents. On the legislative ballot they have a 48-27 lead with them and on the
Congressional one it’s 48-29. Second, GOP voters are more unified heading into 2010
than Democrats are. On the legislative ballot 88% of Republicans commit to voting for
their party while only 79% of Democrats do. When it comes to Congressional voting the
figures are 90% and 77% for the two parties.

One reason the state looks so competitive for next year is that suburban swing voters,
who tended to go Democratic last year, have now shown a shift back toward Republicans.

They say they’ll vote for GOP legislative candidates by a 50-40 margin.

“The way things are shaping up there is a real chance Republicans could take control of
the legislature in North Carolina next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “It’s important for Democratic voters not to be complacent because if
they don’t show up at the polls there could be real consequences for the party for the next
decade if the GOP gets a hold of the redistricting process.”

PPP will release numbers tomorrow looking at voter perceptions about corruption in
North Carolina and how that issue has shifted over the last few decades.

PPP surveyed 711 North Carolina voters from November 9th to 11th. The survey’s
margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Voters in North Carolina would put Republicans in charge of the General Assembly according to results of a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 600 likely voters, respondents were asked if the election were held today for state legislature, would they be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate.  40.7 percent of voters preferred Republicans.  37.8 percent said Democrats.  21.5 percent were undecided.  This question is often referred to as a “generic ballot” test to gauge the overall sentiment of the voting public towards one party or another.

“For only the second time in the four and a half years that Civitas has been polling North Carolina do we see Republicans leading the generic ballot,” said Civitas Institute senior legislative analyst Chris Hayes.  “The tide is certainly with the Republicans at this moment as Democrats have averaged a five point lead on the generic ballot since we began polling.”

The only other time Republicans led on the generic ballot test in North Carolina was in Civitas’ March 2006 poll.  In what may not be a coincidence, that poll was taken right after the State Board of Elections completed hearings into the campaign finance irregularities of former Democratic House Speaker Jim Black.

This month’s poll was conducted the week before the State Board of Elections held hearings on former Democratic Governor Mike Easley’s finances.

“It appears these Democratic scandals are having some effects on who the public wants in charge of the state government,” added Hayes. “For Republicans to lead at those two points in time leads me to believe there may be some direct correlation between the events.”

Full text of question:

If the election for North Carolina state legislature were held today, for whom would you be more likely to vote – a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate?

REPUBLICAN – 40.7%
DEMOCRATIC – 37.8%
UNDECIDED – 21.5%

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 20-21, 2009 by McLaughlin and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Pat McCrory is leaving office as Mayor of Charlotte with a pretty high level of popularity, but it doesn’t mean voters in the city are yearning for him to run for Governor again.

59% approve of the job McCrory is doing with 26% disapproving. He gets good reviews
from 81% of Republicans, 62% of independents, and 39% of Democrats. His approval
with Democrats in Charlotte is actually better than Bev Perdue’s with Democrats
statewide in our most recent polling.

Despite that only 51% of Charlotte voters want McCrory to make a second run for
Governor, with 40% opposed to the idea and 9% unsure.

The drop off from people who like the job McCrory is doing as Mayor to those who want
him to run for Governor again speaks to the issues he had with Charlotte voters in his
statewide run last year.

79% of Republicans are on board, but his 62% approval with
independents drops to 46% who want him to seek the Governor’s office and his 39%
support from Democrats decline to 27% who want to again see him take on Bev Perdue.

“Pat McCrory is very popular with Charlotte voters but they just don’t seem all that
invested in him taking his leadership statewide,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “They didn’t vote for him last fall and even with Bev Perdue’s early
troubles there isn’t a groundswell of support for him to try it again.”

PPP surveyed 791 likely Charlotte voters from October 31st to November 2nd. The
survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

RALEIGH, N.C. – A new poll released today by the Civitas Institute that shows nearly three-fourths of voters disapprove of Gov. Bev Perdue’s journey to Japan and China.

Perdue returns from her trade mission today.

The live caller poll of 600 likely 2010 voters were asked if they approved or disapproved of Gov. Perdue spending $80,000 to go on a trade mission to Japan and China.

A majority of voters,71.8 percent of them, said they disapproved of Perdue’s trip. Only 20.7 percent of voters approved and 7.5 percent said they were unsure.

“While Perdue said this trip was about recruiting jobs, all the polled voters see is another wasteful expenditure of their tax dollars,” said Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis De Luca. “Perdue will need to show some tangible results of the trip in order for the public to think it was worthwhile.”

The trip was disliked even by a majority of Perdue’s supporters; with 53.8 percent of them who said they had a favorable opinion of the Governor also said they disapproved of the spending of money on the trade mission.

“When your own base of supporters think it was a bad idea, it’s pretty clear that her trip was not well received,” added De Luca.

Full results of the poll will be revealed at the Civitas Institute’s monthly poll luncheon on Thursday, Oct. 29 at the Clarion Hotel in downtown Raleigh.

Full text of question: Now I am going to read you a list of issues affecting North Carolina, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following?

“Governor Bev Perdue spending $80,000 to go on a trade mission to Japan and China?”
APPROVE – 20.7%
Strongly Approve – 9.2%
Somewhat Approve – 11.5%
DISAPPROVE – 71.8%
Somewhat Disapprove – 13.8%
Strongly Disapprove – 58.0%
DON’T KNOW – 7.5%

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted October 20-21, 2009 by McLaughlin and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

RALEIGH, NC – A new study by the consulting firm Arduin, Laffer & Moore (ALM) Econometrics and released by Raleigh’s Civitas Institute concludes that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) will actually cause North Carolina to lose up to 67,000 jobs over the next two years.

NBC17 is checking with Gov. Bev Perdue for the other side. Check back here for updates on this story.

The study, entitled “The Economic Impact of Federal Spending on State Economic Performance: A North Carolina Perspective” concludes, “In North Carolina, between 51.1 thousand and 66.9 thousand job losses can be expected to occur during the time that ARRA funds are being spent.”

Co-authors of the report include Arthur Laffer, former member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Board and creator of the famous “Laffer Curve;” and Donna Arduin, former top fiscal advisor to Gov. Schwarzenegger in California and governors in Florida, New York and Michigan.

As Arduin explains, “Government does not create anything – it merely redistributes wealth by taking money from those who pay taxes – those who are creating jobs and wealth – and spending it with bureaucratic inefficiency, reducing the incentive for taxpayers to save, invest, and employ people.”

Government stimulus schemes not only fail to create any net new jobs, but actually reduce job growth. According to Civitas Budget and Tax Policy Analyst Brian Balfour, “Because government projects necessarily only consume resources, fewer scarce inputs are thus available for productive investment. A lower level of productive investment translates into slower economic growth and fewer jobs.”

North Carolina already has its own case study in government “stimulus” spending. Gov. Mike Easley “fast-tracked”’ nearly $750 million in state government capital improvement projects back in January, promising “these projects will produce nearly 26,000 new jobs.” In contrast to such bold claims, North Carolina has since lost 17,000 construction jobs – a contraction of roughly 8 percent – and 71,000 jobs overall.

“North Carolinians should not be fooled by grand promises of government-orchestrated economic stimulus and job creation, whether from D.C. politicians or state officials,” warned Balfour. “The findings of this study along with the disappointing results of Easley’s ‘stimulus’ show that government stimulus schemes do more harm than good.”

The study also warns of the added burden to the state as it expanded unemployment insurance benefits in order to receive ARRA funds, an observation underscored by recent media reports of the $925 million North Carolina borrowed from the federal government to meet its unemployment insurance obligations.

View “The Economic Impact of Federal Spending on State Economic Performance: A North Carolina Perspective.”

BY CIVITAS
RALEIGH, N.C. – With President Barack Obama set to address Congress Wednesday evening to plead his case for overhauling the health insurance and health care industry, a new Civitas Flash Poll released today finds voters deeply divided on their support for the plan.

According to the poll of 662 registered voters, nearly an identical number support the proposal as oppose it.  Of those surveyed, 47.6 percent said they somewhat or strongly supported the health care reform plan presented by President Obama and Congressional Democrats, 47 percent of voters said they were opposed to the plan and 5.4 percent said they were unsure.

“The health care proposal by the President and Congress has deeply divided the nation,” said Francis De Luca, executive director of the Civitas Institute.  “Feelings on the plan are quite intense, with very few people in the middle.  Basically, you either support the plan or you abhor it.”

A reflection of the deep divisions is that roughly three-fourths of voters said they either strongly supported (35.4%) or strongly opposed (40.6%) the plan.

“Candidate Obama pledged to be a uniting force for our country.  However, the actions and proposals by President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress are driving the nation apart,” added De Luca.

Additionally, only 20.5 percent of voters think the cost of health care will go down and 27.3 percent of voters think the quality of their health care will get better if the President’s plan passes.

“Regardless of their support of the President’s proposals, very few think it will actually make things better.  It’s apparent much of the President’s support on the plan is not from people who think it will improve health care, but from their personal support of him,” concluded De Luca.

The Civitas Flash Poll study of 665 registered voters was conducted September 2-3 by Insider Advantage of Atlanta, Georgia.  It has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.  Other factors such as weighting may introduce additional error.

WASHINGTON  – Slightly more than one-third of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Democratic-led Congress, a new poll said Wednesday in a clear warning to the majority party.

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press said the 37 percent expressing a positive opinion represents a decline of 13 points since April.

The favorable percentage is one of the lowest in more than two decades of Pew surveys – if not the lowest, the poll said. The previous low was 40 percent in January, but the difference is not statistically significant because of the margin of error.

The overall percentage wasn’t the only warning for Democrats.

The poll found a major drop in intentions to vote Democratic in next year’s midterm elections. Forty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district or lean Democratic, while 44 percent said they would vote or lean Republican. Four years ago the numbers favored Democrats 52 percent to 40 percent, as the party went on to gain control of Congress.

The bad news for Democrats isn’t a bonanza for Republicans. The survey found that favorable ratings for the GOP remain low at 40 percent.

Most of the shift in voting intentions occurred among political independents, who backed Democrats by a wide margin previously but now say they would back Republicans in their districts by 43 to 38 percent.

On specific issues, a separate Pew survey showed mixed results – with Democrats trusted more but with their leads narrowing. Democrats are viewed as more associated with honest and ethical governance, concern with average Americans and having better candidates. However 34 percent said Republicans could manage the federal government as well as Democrats, compared to 38 percent who favored Democrats. Two years ago, Democrats led by 44 to 32 percent.

The survey covered 11 policy issues, and Democrats held significant leads on seven. The parties were viewed about equally on handling the budget deficit, taxes and immigration, while Republicans had a slight lead on only one issue, handling terrorist threats at home.

The Aug. 20-27 survey on opinions of Congress contacted 2,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.5 percent.

The Aug. 27-30 issues survey contacted 1,005 adults and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percent.

The PPP says the issue of whether Bev Perdue should appear with Barack Obama on various campaign visits is moot.

The state’s first female governor isn’t getting any sympathy for women, according to the latest from Public Policy Polling.