ALBANY, N.Y. – Caroline Kennedy withdrew her Senate bid because of a personal matter unrelated to her ill uncle, rejecting the governor’s attempt to get her to reconsider, a person who worked closely with her said Thursday.

Kennedy discussed withdrawing from the race with Gov. David Paterson on Wednesday, and Paterson asked her to reconsider for 24 hours, the person said.

But by 11 p.m. Wednesday, the associate said, Kennedy decided she couldn’t take the job if appointed, and she issued a statement shortly after midnight saying she was withdrawing.

Kennedy did not decide to bow out because her uncle, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, suffered a seizure during an inaugural luncheon Tuesday, the person said. The 76-year-old Massachusetts senator was diagnosed in May with an aggressive type of brain tumor.

The person wasn’t authorized to disclose the conversation between Kennedy and the governor and spoke on condition of anonymity. The person would give no other details about the personal matter.

Kennedy’s one-sentence statement ended hours of uncertainty as she appeared to waver.

“I informed Governor Paterson today that for personal reasons I am withdrawing my name from consideration for the United States Senate.”

There was no comment from Paterson. Kennedy, the 51-year-old daughter of President John Kennedy, emerged as a front-runner to replace Clinton. But there were questions about her experience and her reluctance to answer questions about her finances.

The seat was once held by Caroline Kennedy’s slain uncle, Bobby Kennedy, and her initial announcement that she wanted to be considered was met with both excitement from supporters and skepticism from those who maintained that she was simply trading on her famous name to get into public office.

With no official explanations from the governor or from Kennedy, political observers were still wondering whether she bowed out on her own, or whether the governor had decided to pick someone else.

Doug Muzzio, a political science professor at Baruch College, called Kennedy’s withdrawal “bizarre and ultimately embarrassing” to her and Paterson.

State Sen. Malcolm Smith, the Democratic majority leader in Albany, said Thursday that Paterson told him he still plans to announce a Senate appointment by Saturday. Kennedy’s decision boosted the chances of several other candidates, including Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who surpassed Kennedy in statewide polls last week. Cuomo had no comment Thursday.

Paterson has said Cuomo had outstanding credentials for the job. Cuomo was the housing secretary under President Bill Clinton. Cuomo was elected attorney general in 2006 and has since led national reforms in the student loan industry and had a role in reining in corporate spending on Wall Street.

Cuomo is also the most popular elected politician in New York in polls – higher than Paterson, whose approval rating, while still high, has been slipping.

Paterson has asked potential candidates to respond to a 28-page questionnaires. The forms ask about personal finances and other background issues, many of which Kennedy has long shielded from the public.

Kennedy, an author, lawyer and fundraiser for New York City schools, has long guarded her privacy, and the questionnaires were expected to include some closely guarded Kennedy financial data.

Paterson had said he thought the candidates’ responses would be confidential because it was his personal request that they fill them out.

But the state’s open-government expert and good-government groups told the AP that once the forms were written and submitted to the governor at least some of the responses would be subject to public review under the state Freedom of Information Law.

Kennedy jumped to the top of statewide polls in early December, but her public support waned following a brief upstate tour and a few press interviews.

She was criticized as reluctant to answer questions, and her knowledge of New York and its issues were suspect. She was also mocked nationwide for her frequent use of “you know” and “um” in interviews and was branded a lackluster campaigner.

The Kennedy reports came hours after Rep. Carolyn Maloney, some Democrats’ top choice, was named chair of the Joint Economic Committee in Congress. That’s a significant move because Paterson had made it clear the next senator’s top job should be to help land a federal stimulus package to help New York out of its historic fiscal crisis.

WASHINGTON – Election watchers won’t have to wait for polls to close in the West to know how things are going. The first clues will come early, when voting ends in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia.

If Democrat Barack Obama wins any of the three, he could be on his way to a big victory, maybe even a landslide. If Republican John McCain sweeps them, he could be headed for a comeback. And if any of these three are too close to call quickly, that could indicate a long night ahead – and, perhaps, a squeaker of a result.

President Bush comfortably won the trio four years ago. But Obama has used his financial muscle and his draw as the youthful first black Democratic nominee to put them, and other historically reliable Republican states, into play.

Thus, the Democrat has several routes he can take to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. McCain’s strategy has no room for error; he must win nearly all the states that went to Bush in 2004, and possibly even one or two that voted for Democrat John Kerry that year.

Here’s a timetable for armchair election watchers, all given in Eastern Standard Time:
 
-7 p.m.: The last polls close in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia, new battlegrounds this year offering a combined 39 votes, as well as in Kentucky and South Carolina, GOP country and 16 votes McCain should easily win, and Vermont, three, a sure thing for Obama.

 -7:30 p.m.: Ohio and North Carolina, both are critical for McCain.

Ohio is a perennial swing state that no Republican has ever lost on his way to the presidency. Bush captured the state twice, and a loss would be difficult, if not impossible, for McCain to weather. He has few options to make up the 20 electoral votes elsewhere, while Obama probably could sustain a defeat here and look for wins in other GOP states where polls show him running stronger.
  
North Carolina, with 15 votes, is another GOP state that Obama targeted for a pickup from the start of the general election and one where he is working to get blacks and young adults to turn out for him in droves. He also made a late play for West Virginia’s five votes. Both are less likely than others to flip; McCain losing either would be disastrous.

 -8 p.m.: Final voting ends in some 15 states and Washington, D.C.

For Obama, the biggest prizes among them are Florida and its 27 votes and 11-vote Missouri, a bellwether for decades. Both went for Bush, and while Obama can afford to lose both, McCain can’t.

Should the Republican stumble in those states or others, he hopes to make up any deficit in Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988. A loss here could be the death knell for McCain’s chances; it’s the only Kerry-won state where he and the Republican National Committee are fiercely competing.
 
Among other Kerry states, McCain hopes New Hampshire and its independent streak will come through for him again; the state, which has four electoral votes, made him in his 2000 presidential primary and saved him eight years later, setting him on course to win the GOP nomination. McCain also has been gunning for a single electoral vote in Maine, one of two states that award them by congressional districts.

In this election-night hour, the Republican will almost certainly rack up 33 quick votes with wins in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee, while Obama banks 47 from Connecticut,
Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and the nation’s capital and 24 more from his home state of Illinois and that of running mate Joe Biden, Delaware.

- 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas should be called for McCain shortly after its polls close. It has six votes.

- 9 p.m.: Another big wave of states closing. The ones to watch are hotly contested Bush states Colorado and New Mexico, where Obama hopes Democratic-leaning Hispanics will lift him to victory. McCain could withstand losing the 14 votes these two offer – as long as he wins just about everywhere else he’s competing.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on the typically reliable Republican territory of North Dakota and South Dakota. Obama has competed in the former, and there may be overlap effect in the latter. They each offer there votes. Obama is also pushing for one vote in a Nebraska congressional district.

Arizona, McCain’s home state, may be another key indicator of which way the election will play out. If McCain loses that state, it’s all but certain his presidential dreams are over. Some surveys show the race there having tightened.

The Republican can essentially guarantee victories worth 52 votes in Kansas, Louisiana, Texas and Wyoming, while Obama is virtually certain to collect 72 votes from Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
 
- 10 p.m.: Voting ends in GOP-held, Iowa, Montana and Nevada, a combined 15 votes. Losing these would be a setback for McCain, while winning them would be a boon for Obama. Utah’s five votes are a certainty for McCain.

- 11 p.m.: Four states – mega-prize California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington – are expected to quickly give Obama a combined 77 votes, while Idaho is expected to award its four votes to McCain.

- 1 a.m.: Capping off the night is Alaska, where GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is governor. The Republican ticket is a shoo-in for those three votes.

And then it’s over. Or not.

As the past two elections showed, there’s no certainty. If it’s a contest at all, the victor may not be declared until Wednesday’s wee hours. Or later.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Voters in central and eastern North Carolina will be in the rain as they go to the polls on Election Day, though forecasters don’t expect heavy rainfall.

National Weather Service meteorologist Jason Beaman said Tuesday that mountain communities should expect to see clouds breakup in the afternoon.

Beaman said light but steady rain will be heaviest in central North Carolina but downpours aren’t expected.

More rainfall is expected along the coast by Tuesday evening as a low pressure system off the coast moves inland and mixes with cooler air.
 
By Wednesday, Beaman said rain is expected only in the northeastern part of the state.

WASHINGTON – Break out the popcorn. As the election results roll in tonight, we’re in for a captivating show on television. Here are five things to watch for as John McCain and Barack Obama duke it out for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Key Early States – Virtually all the battleground states this year were in the Republican column in 2004, underscoring McCain’s challenge. Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m., will offer an early sign of the direction of the race, followed by Ohio and North Carolina at 7:30 p.m.

If McCain loses any of those states, which went for Bush in 2004, he will have a hard time winning.

At 8 p.m., polls close in Pennsylvania, the one blue state from 2004 both candidates hit Monday, the final, full day of campaigning. Though polls give Obama a significant advantage here, McCain is hoping to pull off an upset. If he doesn’t, it will signal real problems for McCain.

Other early, too-close-to-call states closing at 8 p.m. include Florida, the pivotal state from 2000 election, and Missouri, which has chosen the winner in every presidential race since 1956.

Long lines – An early indication of how long it will take to declare a winner tonight will be today’s lines at polling places.

Some watchdog groups warn that states aren’t prepared to handle a crush of new voters. The states say they are, but that voters can expect long lines as polls close.

Long lines could delay final tallies, particularly if turnout is high in Western battleground states like Colorado and New Mexico, where polls close at 9 p.m. and Nevada, where polls close at 10 p.m. (Times are Eastern.)

Black turnout – Pay close attention to turnout of African-American voters in key Southern states. A bigger-than-expected tide – sparked by Obama’s candidacy – could add electoral votes from Georgia, North Carolina and other states with large black populations to the Democrat’s tally. A smaller-than-expected turnout could keep those states in the Republican camp, as in 2004.

Beyond the presidential race, GOP operatives worry that a strong showing among black voters – who trend overwhelmingly Democratic – will swing down-ticket Senate and House races in the South, helping Democrats expand their majority in Congress.

Polls – National polls and surveys in key battleground states suggest Obama will win, likely by a big electoral vote margin. We’ll know tonight whether the pollsters deserve praise for their soothsaying skills or egg on their faces.

2008 has proved tougher than usual for pollsters. The expanded pool of voters, the wild card of Obama’s race and problems reaching younger voters on cell phones have made it difficult to determine exactly who will turn out and how they’ll vote.

Margin of victory – We should know the results by Wednesday morning. Whoever wins, conventional wisdom holds that a big victory equals a big mandate, making it easier to get things done.

While that’s not always the case, the new president’s effectiveness will be influenced by the results of congressional races throughout the country. Democrats are expected to pick up seats in both the House and the Senate. The question is how many.

Obama may find it easier to push his agenda through an expanded Democratic Congress, while McCain would likely be forced to make more concessions.

WASHINGTON – Barack Obama is galloping away with the presidential race. Or maybe he has a modest lead. Or maybe he and John McCain are neck and neck.

Confusing? Sure, thanks to the dueling results of recent major polls.

In the past week, most surveys have shown Democrat Obama with a significant national lead over Republican McCain. Focusing on “likely voters” – as many polling organizations prefer this close to Election Day – an ABC News-Washington Post survey showed Obama leading by 11 percentage points. A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll had the same margin, while the nonpartisan Pew Research Center gave Obama a 14-point edge.

But others had the race much closer. CNN-Opinion Research detected an Obama lead of 5 points. The George Washington University Battleground Poll had Obama up by 4 points. And an Associated Press-GfK poll showed Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent – in effect, a tie.

How can this be? Some questions and answers about why the polls differ.

Q: Don’t pollsters simply ask questions, tally the answers and report them?
 A: No. After finishing their interviews – usually with about 1,000 people, sometimes more – they adjust the answers to make sure they reflect Census Bureau data on the population like gender, age, education and race. For example, if the proportion of women interviewed is smaller than their actual share of the country’s population, their answers are given more “weight” to balance that out. But some pollsters make these adjustments differently than others. And while most polling organizations including the AP do not modify the responses to reflect some recent tally of how many Democrats, Republicans and independents there are, some do.

Q: Are those the only changes made?
A: No. As Election Day nears, polling organizations like to narrow their samples to people who say they are registered voters. They often narrow them further to those they consider likely voters. That’s because in a country where barely more than half of eligible voters usually show up for presidential elections, pollsters want their polls to reflect the views of those likeliest to vote.

Q: Is that hard to do?
A: Quite hard, since no one will truly know who will vote on Election Day until that day is over. In fact, virtually every polling organization has its own way of determining who likely voters are.

Like many polling organizations, the AP asks several questions about how often people have voted in the past and how likely they are to vote this year, and those who score highest are considered likely voters.

Q: Why is this such a problem?
A: Because nobody is 100 percent sure how to do this properly. And the challenge is being compounded this year because many think Obama’s candidacy could spark higher turnout than usual from certain voters, including young voters and minorities. The question pollsters face is whether, and how, to adjust their tests for likely voters to reflect this.

In identifying likely voters, the AP does not build in an assumption of higher turnout by blacks or young voters. Pew Director Andrew Kohut says that reflecting exceptionally heavy African-American turnout in the Democratic primaries, Pew’s model of likely voters now shows blacks as 12 percent of voters, compared to 9 percent in 2004.
 
Underscoring the uncertainty, the Gallup Poll is using two versions of likely voters this year – a traditional one that asks about peoples’ past voting behavior and their current voting intentions; and an expanded one that only looks at how intent they are on voting this year, which would tend to include more new
voters.

Q: What else might cause differences?
A: The groups pollsters randomly choose to interview are bound to differ from each other, and sometimes do significantly.
 
Every poll has a margin of sampling error, usually around 3 percentage points for 1,000 people. That means the results of a poll of 1,000 people should fall within 3 points of the results you would expect had the pollster instead interviewed the entire population of the U.S. But – and this is important – the results
are expected to be that accurate only 95 percent of the time. That means that one time in 20, pollsters expect to interview a group whose views are not that close to the overall population’s views.

Q: Are the differences among polls this year that unusual?
A: Not wildly, but that doesn’t make them less noticeable. There’s a big difference between a race that’s tied in the AP poll, and Pew’s 14-point Obama lead. But because of each poll’s margin of error, those differences may be a bit less – or more – than meet the eye.
 
That’s because each poll’s margin of sampling error should really be applied to the support for each candidate, not the gap between them.

Take the AP poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Obama’s 44 percent support is likely between 48 percent and 40 percent. McCain’s 43 percent is probably between 47 percent and 39 percent.

When support for candidates is measured in ranges like that, some polls’ findings could overlap – or grow worse.

Q: Are people always willing to tell pollsters who they’re supporting for president?
A: No, and that’s another possible source of discrepancies. Some polling organizations gently prod people who initially say they’re undecided for a presidential preference, others do it more vigorously. The AP’s poll, for example, found 9 percent of likely voters were undecided, while the ABC-Post survey had 2 percent.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Early voting begins Thursday.

In Wake County, there are five one-stop voting sites. Even if you don’t have your voter registration card, you can still vote early.

The Wake County Board of Elections says cards are slow to go out because it’s so busy verifying tens of thousands of voter registrations. Currently the BOE says it’s has a backlog of 20,000 registrations to go through.

Only five of Wake County’s one-stop voting sites open tomorrow. All 15 will be open Oct. 23. You can cast a ballot at any of the early voting sites in your county.

Early voting ends Nov. 1. 

Find A One-Stop Voting Location:
Wake County

Full List of All Counties

WAKE COUNTY, N.C. -  Waves of procrastinators filed into the Wake County Board of Elections Friday, the last day to register in North Carolina.

COLUMBUS, Ohio- Leading in polls with 25 days to the election, Democrat Barack Obama is playing it safe, offering careful proposals to address the economic crisis while letting allies respond to John McCain’s sharpest charges.

The Democratic presidential nominee, famous for his unscripted oratory, now reads his speeches from TelePrompTers, reducing the chance of gaffes. He has not held a news conference in two weeks, although he has done several one-on-one interviews with national and local reporters.

He now refers to Republican John McCain as “my opponent” more often than by name. And he offers carefully limited, comparatively non-controversial remedies for the nation’s financial crisis.

Publicly, Obama’s aides say he keeps a calm demeanor and measured tone because he doesn’t want to fuel the anguish and panic caused by the economic meltdown. Privately, they acknowledge there is no desire to shake up a campaign dynamic that is inching him closer to the White House.

“I don’t like to yell,” Obama told more than 10,000 people in Columbus on Friday, his fifth large rally in hotly contested Ohio in two days. He was referring to a sound-system glitch, but it could have been a metaphor for his home-stretch strategy.

“He’s responding just right, and the polls are reflecting it,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who campaigned with Obama this week and helped lead the counterattacks against McCain. When GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin spoke in Ohio on Thursday, Brown said, she spent too much time on issues such as Obama’s ties to Vietnam War-era radical William Ayers, now a college professor in Chicago.

“People are saying, ‘What about our jobs, what about the banking situation?”‘ Brown said.
 
On Friday as McCain rolled out a new TV ad with his sharpest language yet about Ayers, the sharpest Democratic response came from Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, who told an audience in Springfield, Mo., that McCain is trying to “take the lowest road to the highest office in America.”

Obama is seeking a careful balance these days. He criticizes details of McCain’s chief economic proposals, and he briefly and broadly disputes Republican attacks on his character, not getting into details. That seems to satisfy Democratic stalwarts who feel recent nominees were too slow to respond to character attacks.
 
Obama devotes more time to explaining his own long-standing proposals for tax cuts and energy investments. On Friday, he added a temporary program of tax breaks, low-interest government and government-backed private loans for small businesses having trouble borrowing to meet payrolls, maintain inventories or expand.

When this careful rhetoric threatened to bore crowds seeking rhetorical fireworks and when the economic problems turned into a crisis, he added more upbeat lines to his stump speech.

“Now is not the time for fear,” Obama said at every Ohio stop this week. “Now is the time for resolve and steady leadership.”

Unless asked, he does not mention McCain’s and Palin’s fiercest line of attack: that he has associated with Ayers, a former 1960s radical who helped found the violent Weather Underground. When questioned on a radio talk show this week, Obama said that when he began working with Ayers on two nonprofit organization boards in Chicago a quarter century later he thought that the college professor, who lives in his neighborhood, had been rehabilitated.

Increasingly, high-profile supporters take the sharper jabs at McCain before Obama comes on stage. On a sunny street with a few thousand people in Chillicothe, Ohio, on Friday, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland played the part.

“The McCain-Palin campaign and some of their followers unfortunately want you to be afraid of Barack Obama,” he said, adding that “others” have spread untruths about the nominee.

Ohio’s gun owners, Strickland said, “have nothing to fear from Barack Obama.” Nor do people who revere “family and faith,” he said, calling Obama as “a strong Christian, family man.”

The National Rifle Association is running ads against Obama. Internet-driven rumors have falsely claimed he is a Muslim.
  
Brown, the first-term senator, also criticized McCain by name in Chillicothe, saying he learned his economic lessons from the Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial pages.

Obama does not leave all the heavy lifting to surrogates. Referring to McCain and Palin, he told the Chillicothe audience, “it’s not hard to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division.” He said Americans want “someone who can lead this country” in a time of economic crisis, not divide it.
 
Noting that McCain advisers have said their candidate will lose if the campaign’s focus stays on the economy, Obama said: “So in the last couple of days, we’ve seen a barrage of nasty insinuations and attacks, and I’m sure we’ll see much more over the next 25 days. We know what’s coming…. But it won’t work.”

Obama is playing it safe on policy, too, avoiding the far-reaching proposals that have caused McCain headaches. McCain’s call this week for the government to buy bad home-loan mortgages at full face value and renegotiate them at a reduced price set off loud protests from conservatives and liberals alike.

On Friday, McCain called for legislation to suspend a requirement that investors age 70 1/2 begin to draw down their retirement accounts, which could force them to sell stocks at low prices.

Obama’s proposals have been more limited. His proposal Friday to temporarily extend an expiring tax break that lets small businesses immediately write off investments would cover only investments up to $250,000. It would cost the Treasury $900 million, Obama aides said.      

Campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs said, “The other campaign has been focused entirely on us. We’ve been focused entirely on the economy.”

NEWTON — With national politics dominated by a tightly contested presidential race and state and local seats up for grabs, many believe the masses will flock to the polls this year and voter turnout records will be shattered.

More than 600,000 newly registered voters have been added to North Carolina’s rolls this year, but for those who haven’t registered yet, time is running out. The last day to register to vote in this year’s election is Oct. 10 by 5 p.m.

Democrats and Republicans have been working hard to register new voters. Longtime Republican activist Betty Canupp said, “We’ve registered quite a few people. I carry registration forms with me 24-7. We expect a heavy turnout this year.”

Catawba County Democratic Party Chairman Dan Green said he’s seen a lot of new voters registering, too. “In North Carolina this year we’ve registered a lot of new voters and young voters. I think the excitement generated by Barack Obama has contributed very heavily to that effort.”

Although North Carolina hasn’t chosen a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976, Green says he’s confident this could be the year because of widespread dissatisfaction with the current administration and the country’s direction.

Meanwhile, those who are eager and qualified to vote could try one-stop voting.

Called “same-day” voting by some, One-Stop voting is actually a form of absentee voting. Here’s how it works:

A North Carolina resident must go to a One-Stop Voting Site in his or her county of residence and fill out a voter registration application. Make sure you bring proof of residency and an appropriate form of identification with your current name and address.

New registrants can only vote at a One-Stop Absentee Voting Site during the One-Stop Absentee Voting period, which stretches from Oct. 16 through Nov. 1.

One-Stop voting is not available on Election Day. The other way to vote with an absentee ballot is by mail.

Those who wish to request a ballot be sent to them in the mail have until Oct. 28 to do so. All you have to do is write a letter to the Board of Elections Office and include your name, date of birth, home address (and mailing address if it’s different) and your signature.

If you’d like to request a ballot for a near relative such as your spouse, parent, child, grandparent or grandchild, that’s no problem. You can even get a ballot by mail for your stepparents, stepchildren, mother-in-law or father-in-law and your daughter-in-law or son-in-law. (Voters whose requests reach the office after Oct. 28 are out of luck.)

Due to changes in federal and state law, Catawba County will have to use different voting equipment in 2006 than it has been using the past two years.

Those who choose to vote on Election Day (Nov. 4 from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.) will use a paper ballot and mark their choices by filling the ovals next to the candidates of their choice. Voters will then feed completed ballots into a Model 100 scanning machine – much like the system Catawba County used in the past.

Those voting early at One-Stop Voting will use the iVotronic touch screen machine.  If you are voting on Election Day and have disabilities or other special needs, you will use the Automark, which allows you to mark your ballot privately and independently.