What a long, weird – and historic – presidential campaign it’s been.
The choice between Barack Obama and John McCain is down to its final hours until Tuesday’s voting, at which point, we all hope, this race, unlike 2000, will end. Or do we?
“Stop saying you are glad it’s almost over,” insisted comedian-political commentator Bill Maher, on his show Friday. “This has been without a doubt the most interesting, unpredictable campaign season of my lifetime.”
It started with a scenario guaranteed to produce a donnybrook: A president leaving office with no vice president running to succeed him, setting up all-out nomination fights in both parties.
That hadn’t happened since 1928.
Eventually, it became clear there would be somebody black and somebody female involved in the final mix, and we all realized we were looking at history being made.
Two years ago, there were seven or eight “serious” Democratic contenders, depending on how you count them; up to 10 Republicans; and a scarcity of obvious frontrunners on either side.
Among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton was clearly poised to inherit the party mantle, but considered divisive. Obama, a Chicago senator known for eloquence but little else, seemed to be inspiring a small, idealistic crusade.
But the nation’s first black president? Not likely in our lifetime.
The GOP race was even more up in the air.
John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson all had support, but each was thought to have some deal-breaking weakness.
Giuliani was too New York-cosmopolitan; Romney too new to social conservatism; Huckabee too lacking in gravitas; Thompson too lackadaisical; and McCain too rambunctious, inclined to buck the party on everything from stem cells to campaign financing to judicial nominees.
Giuliani, the hero of 9/11, the man who could put the Democratic fortress of New York in the GOP column, looked good.
Then the caucuses and primaries began.
In one of the nation’s whitest, most rural states, Iowa, a black man won the Democratic caucuses and an Arkansas preacher-politician named Huckabee won the Republican caucuses. We did a nationwide doubletake and asked, “Who are these guys?”
After McCain’s campaign imploded with poor financial management, he disappeared into New Hampshire, only to emerge from there Phoenix-like as the GOP frontrunner.
Campaigning in New Hampshire after losing Iowa, Clinton wept on TV. She wasn’t just a hard-edged machine in pantsuits, but a real person. She won New Hampshire, and the Democratic race to Superdooper Tuesday, Feb. 5, was on – with Florida as a speed-bump.
In the GOP race, Giuliani made a finely calculated decision that turned out completely wrong. Looking at McCain’s heels, he could regain the lead Florida. He all but moved there, as so many New Yorkers had done before.
But Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, ever watchful of polls that showed McCain edging ahead, decided on the eve of the Florida primary to endorse him.
McCain coasted from his Florida win to the nomination, while Clinton and Obama scratched and clawed almost until the August convention.
Clinton continued to argue it was time for a woman on the ticket. Obama painted her as the “establishment” candidate, not a change agent.
Clinton continued to win primaries, but seemed to have forgotten about states that held caucuses. Obama’s vast, disciplined organization had the caucus states wired, and he also piled up second-place delegates from states that Clinton won.
As they fought, Obama increasingly sought to take on the air of a worldwide figure – a man who could alter the centuries-old calculus of black exclusion in the world’s most powerful nation.
He gave a July speech in Berlin on foreign affairs. A later speech before an unprecedented, stadium-filling crowd in Denver capped a Democratic nominating convention that gave him a major bump in polls.
McCain, the exciting outsider during his 2000 race, was in danger of seeming boring and irrelevant in this one, reduced to grousing about Obama’s celebrity status.
Hoping to add some demographic zing to his own ticket, and capitalize on the resentment of Clinton supporters, he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. She revived the party’s evangelical base and pumped in new energy.
But it came at a cost. Her inexperience quickly showed in the few interviews she did, and even Republicans questioned her qualifications.
Then came the campaign’s defining event, the Wall Street collapse. Historians likely will say the winner is the one who handled that issue best.
Obama continued to press his case as the agent of change, sought to project an air of calm leadership, and intensified his economic populism.
McCain sought to show urgency by suspending his campaign, and with the race focused on the economy, fell back on the most reliable weapon in the GOP arsenal, anti-tax rhetoric.
Suddenly the race was about Joe the Plumber, who Obama had told he wanted to “spread the wealth around,” which McCain calls “socialism.”
Political analysts say a key to Tuesday’s result are traditional swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Even with polls showing Obama doing better in a number of states that Democrats have traditionally not won – such as Virginia and North Carolina – he, Biden and their surrogates continue to focus heavily on Florida with appearances and TV ads.
For McCain, winning Florida may be even more crucial.
Most analysts say that if he and Palin do not take the state, they cannot win the election.
On Tuesday, you decide.
