When he runs for re-election next year, U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is almost sure to face a strong, well-financed Democratic opponent determined to duplicate Democrats’ success in 2008.
Burr just doesn’t know who it will be.
N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper, the top choice of many Democratic leaders, told supporters yesterday that he will not run for Senate because he wants to remain in North Carolina. Cooper’s decision clears the path for a wide-open field of Democrats who are considering a run against Burr, a one-term senator whom many see as vulnerable.
“North Carolina is a swing state. It’s going to be competitive. You can expect millions of dollars in special-interest money to be spent,” said Paul Shumaker, a political strategist for Burr. “The Democrats did it effectively in 2008, and they’ll try to do it in 2010.”
Indeed, Democrats are feeling invigorated by last year’s success, in which Kay Hagan pulled off an upset of former Sen. Elizabeth Dole. They believe that Burr is just as vulnerable as Dole was, and they hope to unseat him with the same flood of new voters that came out in support of Barack Obama last year.
Burr’s approval rating is just 36 percent, according to a poll taken this month by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. That’s a dangerously low number for an incumbent, and it’s nine points lower than Dole’s approval rating at the same point in the cycle two years ago. The poll, which surveyed 755 North Carolina voters, was taken from May 8 to May 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent.
“I will tell you that this is a very winnable race,” Morgan Jackson, a strategist for Cooper, said yesterday after Cooper ruled himself out of the race. “It’s not all that different from two years ago.”
The election is still 20 months away, but both sides are laying the groundwork for a tough campaign. In the Dole-Hagan race, the combined spending by both candidates and outside groups was nearly $50 million.
The 2010 race is likely to be in line with that.
Burr, who is from Winston-Salem, has already started mailing cards to Republicans and unaffiliated voters, and he has set up a Web site targeting new voters. Those are clear signs that Burr wants to avoid the mistakes of the Dole campaign, which failed to attract many newly registered voters and got trounced by the Democratic Party’s early-voting drive.
“In 2008, the turnout program for Republicans was a 72-hour turnout program,” Shumaker said. He promised that the Burr campaign “will be doing a lot of things differently.”
Democrats, meanwhile, have already published a Web ad attacking Burr. Their most important task now is to find a candidate to run against him.
Cooper, a likable, politically moderate candidate with strong crime-fighting credentials, was aggressively recruited by party leaders. But he said in an e-mail to supporters that he wants to continue his public service
in North Carolina rather than move to Washington.
Another heavily recruited candidate, U.S. Congressman Heath Shuler, D-11th, also said recently that he will not run for Burr’s seat – though he may reconsider now that Cooper has dropped out.
If Cooper and Shuler both stay out of the race, a Democratic primary is likely.
The only person who has publicly expressed interest so far is Kenneth Lewis, a lawyer who lives in Chapel Hill and was a fundraiser for Obama last year.
Cal Cunningham, a former state senator from Lexington, is also seriously considering a run. He is an Army reservist who recently returned from Iraq, and he has been making the rounds at various Democratic functions across the state. He works as a lawyer in Winston-Salem for the law firm Kilpatrick Stockton.
“I’m getting a lot of encouragement,” Cunningham said yesterday.
Behind the scenes, the list of other names being floated as potential candidates is long. It includes other North Carolina congressmen, current and former state legislators, elected officials in the state’s executive branch – and even Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former senator and presidential candidate John Edwards.
The situation is reminiscent of the prelude to the Dole race, when many high-profile Democrats, including then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, were urged to run against Dole but declined.
Finally, an initially reluctant Kay Hagan, who had little statewide name recognition, was persuaded to enter the race.
She ended up beating Dole by nine points.
“The lesson from Kay Hagan is: Step up to bat,” said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic consultant. “Kay Hagan stepped up to what people thought was an unlikely race. And she’s a U.S. senator.”
The Breakdown: Who might run against Burr?
Attorney General Roy Cooper’s decision not to challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Burr clears the way for a long list of other Democrats who are rumored to have some interest in running. Here are 10 of the top names being mentioned:
• Cal Cunningham, former state senator. Cunningham, a captain in the Army reserves who recently returned from Iraq, is young (just 35) but politically connected. He has been increasing his visibility lately by traveling the state and speaking at Democratic functions. He lives in Lexington and works as a lawyer in Winston-Salem.
• Walter Dalton, lieutenant governor. Dalton is a moderate Democrat and a good campaigner. After serving in the N.C. Senate, he was elected last year to be lieutenant governor, a job with high visibility but little real power.
• Bob Etheridge, U.S. congressman for the 2nd District. Etheridge is a popular congressman and former state schools superintendent. But he may be unwilling to give up his influential new assignment on the House Ways and Means Committee.
• Kenneth Lewis, a lawyer and Democratic fundraiser. Lewis publicly expressed interest earlier this year in running against Burr. He has worked on previous Senate campaigns and Barack Obama’s campaign in North Carolina.
• Elaine Marshall, North Carolina’s secretary of state. Marshall ran for U.S. Senate in 2002, losing in a Democratic primary. She is popular among women voters, a group in which Burr has polled well.
• Grier Martin, state representative from Wake County. Martin was recruited in 2008 to run against Elizabeth Dole, but he declined. Like Cunningham, he is an Army reservist, and some Democrats believe his military credentials would make him a strong candidate.
• Charles Meeker, mayor of Raleigh. Meeker is said to have ambitions for higher office, and he is popular in Raleigh, the state’s second-largest city.
• Brad Miller, U.S. congressman for the 13th District. Miller, like Martin, was heavily courted in 2008 to run against Dole. Like Martin, he declined to run and may be kicking himself.
• Richard Moore, former state treasurer. Moore lost the Democratic nomination for governor last year in a tough primary against Bev Perdue. He may not want to risk another loss, but he is ambitious and charismatic.
• Heath Shuler, U.S. congressman for the 11th District. Along with Cooper, Shuler was considered a top choice among party leaders to challenge Burr, but Shuler said recently he is not planning on running. With Cooper out, Shuler could reconsider.
