By Wesley Young
Media General News Service

Voter participation increased in 2008 among whites, blacks and Hispanics in North Carolina compared with 2004, a new Census Bureau survey about the presidential election shows.

Chalk it up to North Carolina’s status as a “state in play” during the 2008 general election, said Ferrel Guillory, an election analyst.

“The Democratic campaign poured a lot of resources into the state, in television commercials and a get-out-the-vote effort,” said Guillory, who is the director of the Program on Public Life at the UNC Center for the
Study of the American South. “That activity generated a high turnout, mostly on the Democratic side.”

“You had a higher turnout, particularly among black voters who found themselves with an opportunity to make history,” he said.

North Carolina had a 95 percent turnout among black registered voters and 88 percent among registered white voters.

The turnout numbers for North Carolina were quite different than the numbers for the United States as a whole.

Nationally, the share of eligible voters who cast ballots in November declined for the first time in several years. The reason: Older whites with little interest in backing either Barack Obama or John McCain stayed home.

Census figures released Monday show about 63.6 percent of all U.S. citizens ages 18 and older, or 131.1 million people, voted last November.

Although that represented an increase of 5 million voters — virtually all of them minorities — the turnout relative to the population of eligible voters was a decrease from 63.8 percent in 2004.

Ohio and Pennsylvania were among those showing declines in white voters, helping Obama carry those battleground states.

“While the significance of minority votes for Obama is clearly key, it cannot be overlooked that reduced white support for a Republican candidate allowed minorities to tip the balance in many slow-growing ‘purple’ states,” said William H. Frey, a demographer for the Brookings Institution, referring to key battleground states that do not notably tilt Democrat or Republican.

“The question I would ask is if a continuing stagnating economy could change that,” he said.
Where North Carolina has been colored Republican red in every presidential election since 1976, the
Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden carried the state by about 14,000 votes last year.

The Census Bureau figures are estimates based on a survey sample and are subject to margins of error that vary depending on the group measured.

The Census Bureau reported that nationwide the number of black voters increased by 2 million, as did the number of Hispanic voters. The number of non-Hispanic white voters was about the same as in 2004.

All three ethnic groups showed increased voter participation in North Carolina, the survey said. About 68 percent of the white population voted in 2008, compared with 61.5 percent in 2004. Among blacks older than 18, about 67 percent said they voted in 2008, compared with 63 percent in 2004.

Hispanic voter participation grew from eight percent to 21 percent, but the survey found that 65 percent of North Carolina’s Hispanics with citizenship cast ballots in 2008.

Although the Census Bureau figures do not show it, Guillory said, younger voters overwhelmingly favored Obama.

“The third thing is that if you look at the numbers by county, you see Obama did especially well in the state’s major metropolitan areas,” he said.

Although a breakdown by race and age was not available on the state level, the Census Bureau figures showed that a smaller percentage of North Carolina voters between 65 and 74 voted in 2008 compared with 2004.

“The internal dynamics shifted just enough to give the Democrats victory in 2008 but we remain a high competitive state,” Guillory said.

“What the Census Bureau numbers help show is that when you have a competitive election and voters feel that a lot is at stake they will come out to vote.”

WASHINGTON – Enthusiasm among blacks and Democrats for Barack Obama’s candidacy pushed voter turnout in this year’s elections to the highest level in 40 years.

Final figures from nearly every state and the District of Columbia showed that more than 131 million people voted, the most ever for a presidential election. A little more than 122 million voted in 2004.

This year’s total is 61.6 percent of the nation’s eligible voters, the highest turnout rate since 1968, when Republican

Richard M. Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey, said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at George Mason University. States finished certifying their election results this weekend, including California on Saturday. The Electoral College was scheduled to elect Obama president on Monday, with electors meeting in each state to vote in a largely ceremonial procedure.

Turnout increased for the third straight presidential election, encouraging news for those who have warned about voter apathy. Four years ago, 60.1 percent of those eligible voted.

“We seem to have restored the levels of civic engagement that we had in the 1950s and 1960s,” McDonald said. “But we didn’t break those levels.”

McDonald calculated turnout rates based on the number of eligible voters among adult U.S. citizens. Experts calculate turnout rates in different ways based on whom they consider eligible voters, a process that excludes noncitizens and, in most states, convicted felons.

Regardless of the method, turnout fell short of many predictions, in part because voters in some Republican areas of the country were not as enthusiastic this year with Sen. John McCain as the party’s nominee as they were four years ago when President George W. Bush won a second term.

Bush’s unpopularity after eight years in office, the nation’s fatigue with the Iraq war and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression – coupled with Obama’s message of change – contributed to the increased turnout for Obama. He was also helped by a surge in black voters, who had the opportunity to elect the first black president.

The number of registered Democrats jumped in many states, helping to propel Obama to a larger share of the vote than Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, in 44 states and the District of Columbia.

Early voting hit a new high, with about 41 million people – or more than 31 percent – voting before Election Day, either by mail or at designated sites, according to returns compiled by The Associated Press. Early voting accounted for 22 percent of the votes cast in 2004.

The Obama campaign invested heavily in early voting, and it appeared to be the difference in several states, though many of those people might have eventually voted on Election Day.

Voter turnout increased substantially in newly competitive states such as Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, which all went for Obama after decades of favoring Republican presidential candidates. Turnout also increased in some Republican states with large black populations, such as Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia.

North Carolina, which had competitive elections for president, governor and Senate, had the biggest increase in turnout, from 57.8 percent in 2004 to 65.8 percent this year.

“I don’t know that we did anything different than in other states, but the magnitude was so different,” said North Carolina Democratic Chairman Jerry Meek. “We were the only state in the country with a nationally targeted presidential race, gubernatorial race and Senate race.”

Obama won North Carolina by 14,177 votes, out of more than 4.3 million cast. In the Senate race, Democrat Kay Hagan beat incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole. Beverly Perdue was elected the state’s first female governor.

Minnesota, with a competitive Senate race that still hasn’t been decided, had the highest turnout rate, even though it dropped slightly, to 77.8 percent. It was followed by Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa.

West Virginia and Hawaii tied for the lowest turnout rate, at 50.6 percent. Arkansas, Utah and Texas came close.

In all, the turnout rate increased in 33 states and the District of Columbia.

Turnout dropped in some states that did not have competitive presidential contests, such as Utah and Oregon. Oregon had been a battleground in previous presidential elections and the state had a competitive Senate race.

A study by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University suggests that even with record lines and the increasing popularity of casting ballots early, the overall rate of voter turnout for the 2008 election will not reach record levels.

RALEIGH, N.C. - North Carolina’s overall voter turnout was less than projected, but it still made history.

Unofficial results from Tuesday’s election show more than 68 percent of the registered voters cast ballots during the early voting period and on Election Day. More than half of the votes were cast during early voting.

State elections director Gary Bartlett said Wednesday it could ultimately reach 70 percent when all the provisional ballots are counted.

The best turnout in recent history came in 1984 at 69 percent.

More than 4.2 million ballots already have been counted. That’s well above the 3.5 million cast in the 2004 elections. Elections officials had projected a turnout of 4.6 million votes, but long lines on Election Day didn’t materialize, possibly due to rain in much of the state.

RALEIGH, N.C. – The long waits that plagued early voting in North Carolina haven’t turned up on Election Day.

Several counties reported some lines of a few dozen people when polls opened Tuesday morning. But they quickly abated as sites processed those pre-workday voters. North Carolina’s largest counties reported little or no waits at polling sites throughout much of the day, and some precincts only had a trickle of voters coming to cast a ballot.

The overwhelming turnout that sustained through the early voting period that ended Saturday processed some 2.6 million voters. Because of that, elections officials expected about 2 million people to vote Tuesday.

State Board of Elections director Gary Bartlett now says the turnout will fall below his earlier guess.

WASHINGTON – Voter turnout will be the highest in decades, dwarfing recent presidential elections, experts predict.

The only question dividing experts is how huge will it be. Will it be the largest since 1968, largest since 1960 or even, as one expert predicts, the largest in a century?

Soaring early voting levels hint at a big turnout, but that could just be the same voters casting ballots earlier instead of more voters hitting the polls. Weather should generally be favorable, according to forecasts.

What early voting numbers mean and how much of the youth and Hispanic votes turn out are the big factors political scientists look at when trying to predict how many eligible Americans will vote.

Michael McDonald of George Mason University is so optimistic he’s predicting the highest level in a century.

“We’re going to definitely beat the turnout rate in 2004, the question is by how much,” McDonald said. “We have a chance to beat the 1960 turnout rate.”

“It’s not just an election of a generation, it’s an election of generations with an ’s’,” McDonald said Friday.

He’s not alone. The dean of voting turnout predictions, Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, this week amped up his turnout forecast. Initially he said it would be around 2004 levels, but now he is looking at a turnout that would be the highest since 1960.

“It’s driven by 90 percent of the American people thinking the country is on the wrong track,” Gans said Friday. “The only question is how many Republicans are not going to show up.”

MIT political scientist Adam Berinsky predicted the highest levels since 1968, which he said is still quite impressive given that the polls show this election is not that close and fewer people tend to vote when the race isn’t tight.

The McCain campaign released a strategy memo earlier this week, saying “turnout is going to go through the roof,” and predicted that more than 130 million people would vote. And Obama campaign manager David Plouffe on Friday said, “we think turnout is going to be higher than that” but wouldn’t give a number. Four years ago, 122.3 million people voted for president.

Calculating turnout rates isn’t uniform. McDonald bases his turnout calculations on eligible voters, not just those over 18 and he subtracts felons and foreigners and others. Other people have different calculations for eligible voters; some experts just use the percent of the voting age population, regardless of eligibility.

McDonald predicts 64 percent of the eligible voters will cast ballots. That’s more than 2004’s 60.1 percent and a hair above 1960’s post World War II high of 63.8 percent. The high for the 20th Century, using McDonald’s calculations, was 65.7 percent in 1908 when William Howard Taft defeated William Jennings Bryan.

Record heavy early voting – people lining up to vote early in
Florida and elsewhere, Georgia getting more than twice the early votes it did in 2004 – is one key factor, McDonald said. Democrats are voting in person earlier than Republicans, he said.

Gans isn’t swayed by the number of early voters, but their enthusiasm and willingness to brave long lines to vote early “indicates a very high motivation.” And that along with increased voter registration made him up his forecast.

Other factors pushing forecasts up include high voting in the primaries, record donations by small contributors, and general interest in the race, McDonald said. Dan Schnur, head of the University of Southern California’s Institute of Politics, points to record television ratings for nominating conventions that offered no suspense.

Indications are that turnout by African-Americans will increase by about 20 percent, said MIT and Harvard political science professor Stephen Ansolabehere.

The only bad weather forecast is rain in the Pacific Northwest and along a small stretch of Southeast coast; McDonald didn’t think that would matter much.

The only dampening factors are the youth vote, which hasn’t shown much in early voting, and as the race looks less close, some people may stay home, experts said.

RALEIGH, N.C. – Since the 1972 election, after the adoption of the 26th Amendment lowering the voting age to 21, we regularly hear that this will be the year that “young voters” will make the difference. And just as regularly, young voters fail to show up at the polls in the numbers predicted.